FC Krasnodar 3-2 Baltika – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Krasnodar at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Krasnodar vs Baltika fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Baltika travel to Stadion FK Krasnodar to take on FC Krasnodar. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 24 April 2024, 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Krasnodar stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Krasnodar's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stadion FK Krasnodar this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — FC Krasnodar are significantly better at Stadion FK Krasnodar than their overall form suggests.
Baltika — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Baltika, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baltika's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Krasnodar 1.50 PPG, Baltika 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC Krasnodar, 0 for Baltika and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Krasnodar trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Baltika trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Krasnodar 58% versus Baltika 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Krasnodar 38% | Baltika 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 1.39 xG and Baltika 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 1.058 / defence 0.845 | Baltika attack 1.128 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.317. Data: 54 FC Krasnodar games / 24 Baltika games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 40% | Draw 27% | Baltika 33%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Baltika 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Krasnodar at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC Krasnodar 60% | Baltika 30%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs Baltika | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Apr 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 40% | Draw 27% | Baltika 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG FC Krasnodar 1.39 / Baltika 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 1.058 / def 0.845 | Baltika attack 1.128 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Baltika xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Krasnodar vs Baltika kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs Baltika kicked off at 18:30 on Wednesday 24 April 2024 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs Baltika?
FC Krasnodar 3 - 2 Baltika.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs Baltika being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs Baltika part of?
FC Krasnodar vs Baltika is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs Baltika?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 40% chance of winning, Baltika a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs Baltika?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FC Krasnodar and Baltika will score (BTTS).
Will FC Krasnodar vs Baltika have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Baltika?
Record (1 meetings): FC Krasnodar 0W | Draws 1 | Baltika 0W.
What form are FC Krasnodar and Baltika in?
FC Krasnodar (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Baltika (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Krasnodar's attack at 1.06x the league average against Baltika's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baltika's attack versus FC Krasnodar's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
40%
2.52
27%
3.68
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
2.65
1.25
Baltika xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
11%
8.85
8%
12.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs Baltika?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and Baltika expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 1.25 for Baltika, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs Baltika?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Krasnodar's recent record stands at 13W 7D 4L from 24 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baltika, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 13L across 24 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Baltika is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Krasnodar by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Baltika heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Krasnodar have managed 9W 2D 1L from 12 games — 2.42 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.92 PPG overall — FC Krasnodar are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Baltika's away record stands at 1W 2D 9L across 12 trips, a 0.42 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Baltika's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Baltika are on 0.96 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Baltika
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Krasnodar and Baltika in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 13W 7D 4L in their last 24 games (1.92 PPG), while Baltika have gone 6W 5D 13L in their last 24 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or Baltika away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 2.42 PPG; Baltika away: 0.42 PPG.
Have FC Krasnodar or Baltika been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Baltika in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Krasnodar and Baltika runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
FC Krasnodar's record when hosting Baltika specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
FC Krasnodar
3
Draws
0
Baltika
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Baltika?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Krasnodar have won 1, Baltika have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and Baltika last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when FC Krasnodar 2-2 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and Baltika?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Baltika see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Krasnodar 50%, Baltika 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for FC Krasnodar and 33% for Baltika.
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Baltika in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / Baltika away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Krasnodar play Baltika?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 33% of Baltika's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Krasnodar vs Baltika usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FC Krasnodar's recent games and 33% of Baltika's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Krasnodar and Baltika tend to score early?
FC Krasnodar have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Baltika in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Krasnodar edge out Baltika 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar beat Baltika 3-2 at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.39 xG and Baltika 1.25 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Krasnodar beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.06 / defence 0.84 against Baltika attack 1.13 / defence 0.97, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 40% | Draw 27% | Baltika 33%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 38%, Baltika 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Baltika's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baltika (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.