Vizela 3-1 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vizela at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vizela vs Casa Pia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Casa Pia make the trip to Estádio Do Vizela to face Vizela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 April 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Vizela (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vizela at Estádio Do Vizela this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Casa Pia have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Casa Pia away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Vizela against 1.10 for Casa Pia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Vizela, 0 for Casa Pia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Vizela winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Vizela — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Casa Pia — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Vizela 32% | Casa Pia 32%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vizela 40% | Casa Pia 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 1.26 xG and Casa Pia 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.884 / defence 1.120 | Casa Pia attack 0.659 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.044. Data: 59 Vizela games / 25 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 48% | Draw 29% | Casa Pia 23%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Casa Pia 4.35. Vizela hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vizela are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vizela if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Vizela 10% | Casa Pia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 48% | Draw 29% | Casa Pia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Vizela 1.26 / Casa Pia 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.884 / def 1.120 | Casa Pia attack 0.659 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Vizela (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Casa Pia xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs Casa Pia kick off?
Vizela vs Casa Pia kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Casa Pia?
Vizela 3 - 1 Casa Pia.
Where is Vizela vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Casa Pia part of?
Vizela vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 48% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vizela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Vizela and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Casa Pia?
Record (1 meetings): Vizela 1W | Draws 0 | Casa Pia 0W.
What form are Vizela and Casa Pia in?
Vizela (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Casa Pia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vizela's attack at 0.88x the league average against Casa Pia's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Casa Pia's attack (0.66x) against Vizela's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 59/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vizela Win
48%
2.08
29%
3.42
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.04
0.77
Casa Pia xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
6%
15.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 12.7 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Vizela and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Vizela and 0.77 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Casa Pia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vizela's recent record stands at 9W 5D 11L from 25 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Casa Pia, meanwhile, have gone 11W 5D 9L across 25 games — 1.52 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Vizela against 1.52 for Casa Pia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Vizela have managed 4W 2D 6L from 12 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Casa Pia's away record stands at 5W 2D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vizela are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 0.88 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Vizela have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Casa Pia in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Blended
Casa Pia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 9W 5D 11L in their last 25 games (1.28 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 11W 5D 9L in their last 25 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Casa Pia away?
Casa Pia's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.17 PPG; Casa Pia away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Vizela or Casa Pia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vizela have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Casa Pia in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Casa Pia won 0-4 on 31 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vizela have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Vizela
0
Draws
1
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Casa Pia?
From 4 meetings on record, Vizela have won 3, Casa Pia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2024, when Vizela 0-4 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Casa Pia?
Vizela have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 17% (Vizela) and 33% (Casa Pia) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Vizela) and 42% (Casa Pia).
On the defensive side: Vizela keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Casa Pia in 33%; Vizela have failed to score in 58% of games; Casa Pia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play Casa Pia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Vizela's recent matches and 33% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vizela vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Vizela's recent games and 42% of Casa Pia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and Casa Pia tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vizela cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Casa Pia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vizela beat Casa Pia 3-1 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 1.26 xG and Casa Pia 0.77 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Vizela beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.88 / defence 1.12 against Casa Pia attack 0.66 / defence 1.10, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 48% | Draw 29% | Casa Pia 23%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 40%, Casa Pia 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Casa Pia's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vizela 1.28 PPG, Casa Pia 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vizela win broke the near-deadlock. Vizela (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Casa Pia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.