SC Braga 1-0 Boavista – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SC Braga at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Braga vs Boavista encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Boavista travel to Estádio Municipal de Braga to take on SC Braga. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 January 2023, 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Braga stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Braga's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Estádio Municipal de Braga this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal de Braga. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Boavista — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boavista away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
SC Braga are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for SC Braga, 0 for Boavista and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SC Braga in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Boavista in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Braga 40% versus Boavista 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Braga 50% | Boavista 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Braga 1.92 xG and Boavista 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Braga attack 1.173 / defence 0.817 | Boavista attack 0.965 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 0.998. Boavista bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing SC Braga's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 SC Braga games / 48 Boavista games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Braga 64% | Draw 21% | Boavista 15%. Fair-value odds: SC Braga 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Boavista 6.67. The model has a clear lean to SC Braga (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Braga are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: SC Braga 20% | Boavista 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Braga vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Braga 64% | Draw 21% | Boavista 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 46% | xG SC Braga 1.92 / Boavista 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: SC Braga attack 1.173 / def 0.817 | Boavista attack 0.965 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.330 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
SC Braga xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Boavista xG
46%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Braga vs Boavista kick off?
SC Braga vs Boavista kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What was the final score in SC Braga vs Boavista?
SC Braga 1 - 0 Boavista.
Where is SC Braga vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What competition is SC Braga vs Boavista part of?
SC Braga vs Boavista is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win SC Braga vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives SC Braga a 64% chance of winning, Boavista a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Braga vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both SC Braga and Boavista will score (BTTS).
Will SC Braga vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Boavista?
Record (2 meetings): SC Braga 0W | Draws 2 | Boavista 0W.
What form are SC Braga and Boavista in?
SC Braga (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Boavista (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Braga's attack rating (1.17) and Boavista's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Boavista's attack versus SC Braga's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
64%
1.56
21%
4.69
15%
6.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
SC Braga xG
Total xG
2.70
0.79
Boavista xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
6.82
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
46%
2.20
15%
6.79
Win to Nil
29%
3.43
2%
46.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 10.1 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Braga vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are SC Braga and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for SC Braga and 0.79 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Braga vs Boavista?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Braga's recent record stands at 29W 9D 10L from 48 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Boavista, meanwhile, have gone 13W 19D 16L across 48 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Braga by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Boavista heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Braga have managed 14W 5D 4L from 23 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Boavista's away record stands at 5W 7D 11L across 23 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Braga are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 1.12 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista in 62%.
Defensively: SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Braga
Blended
Boavista
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Braga and Boavista in coming into this match?
SC Braga have gone 29W 9D 10L in their last 48 games (2.00 PPG), while Boavista have gone 13W 19D 16L in their last 48 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Braga at home or Boavista away?
SC Braga's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Braga at home: 2.04 PPG; Boavista away: 0.96 PPG.
Have SC Braga or Boavista been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Boavista in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Braga and Boavista runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
SC Braga have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2024, when SC Braga won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Braga's record when hosting Boavista specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
SC Braga
3
Draws
0
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Boavista?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Braga have won 5, Boavista have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Braga and Boavista last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when SC Braga 3-0 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between SC Braga and Boavista?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Braga see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Braga 30%, Boavista 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (SC Braga) and 61% (Boavista).
On the defensive side: SC Braga keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; SC Braga have failed to score in 26% of games; Boavista in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Braga home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Braga play Boavista?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of SC Braga's recent matches and 65% of Boavista's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Braga vs Boavista usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of SC Braga's recent games and 61% of Boavista's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Braga and Boavista tend to score early?
SC Braga have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Boavista in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out Boavista 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Boavista 1-0 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 1.92 xG and Boavista 0.79 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SC Braga fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.17 / defence 0.82 against Boavista attack 0.96 / defence 1.23, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Braga 64% | Draw 21% | Boavista 15%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 50%, Boavista 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Braga's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Boavista's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Boavista (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.