Maritimo vs GIL Vicente – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates GIL Vicente at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Maritimo vs GIL Vicente encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Maritimo versus GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 28 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Maritimo have collected 1.00 PPG across 8 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 4L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.12 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Maritimo have posted 1W 1D 2L at — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
GIL Vicente (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to GIL Vicente, who have claimed 3 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that GIL Vicente have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Maritimo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Maritimo 75% versus GIL Vicente 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Maritimo 75% | GIL Vicente 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 1.00 xG and GIL Vicente 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 0.847 / defence 1.143 | GIL Vicente attack 0.880 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.364. Data: 8 Maritimo games / 42 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 27% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 46%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | GIL Vicente 2.17. GIL Vicente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Maritimo 50% | GIL Vicente 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 27% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Maritimo 1.00 / GIL Vicente 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 0.847 / def 1.143 | GIL Vicente attack 0.880 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
1.37
GIL Vicente xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Maritimo vs GIL Vicente is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 February 2027.
What competition is Maritimo vs GIL Vicente part of?
Maritimo vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 27% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Maritimo and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and GIL Vicente?
Record (5 meetings): Maritimo 0W | Draws 2 | GIL Vicente 3W.
What form are Maritimo and GIL Vicente in?
Maritimo (all comps): 2W-2D-4L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Maritimo's attack at 0.85x the league average against GIL Vicente's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.88x) against Maritimo's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
27%
3.67
27%
3.67
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Maritimo xG
Total xG
2.37
1.37
GIL Vicente xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
7%
14.49
17%
5.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Maritimo and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Maritimo and 1.37 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Maritimo's recent record stands at 2W 2D 4L from 8 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 2L across 8 games — 1.75 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours GIL Vicente by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Maritimo heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Maritimo have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 2W 1D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Maritimo are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.00 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Maritimo have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: GIL Vicente in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 games (1.00 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Maritimo at home or GIL Vicente away?
GIL Vicente's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Maritimo at home: 1.00 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Maritimo or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Maritimo have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Maritimo have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Maritimo
2
Draws
3
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and GIL Vicente?
From 5 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 0, GIL Vicente have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when GIL Vicente 1-1 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Maritimo 50%, GIL Vicente 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Maritimo and 50% for GIL Vicente. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Maritimo's recent matches and 50% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Maritimo vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Maritimo's matches and 50% of GIL Vicente's.
Do Maritimo and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.