Vitória SC 0-1 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vitória SC at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitória SC vs Casa Pia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques plays host to Vitória SC versus Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026 at 20:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vitória SC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Vitória SC's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Vitória SC are significantly better at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques than their overall form suggests.
Casa Pia (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Casa Pia have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Vitória SC. A 0.70 PPG lead over Casa Pia (1.10 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Vitória SC 1W, Casa Pia 2W, 4D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.9 per game from 7 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.9 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Vitória SC — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Casa Pia — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitória SC 42% versus Casa Pia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitória SC 47% | Casa Pia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitória SC 2.10 xG and Casa Pia 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitória SC attack 1.144 / defence 0.896 | Casa Pia attack 0.720 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.137. Casa Pia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Vitória SC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Vitória SC games / 66 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitória SC 69% | Draw 19% | Casa Pia 12%. Fair-value odds: Vitória SC 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Casa Pia 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Vitória SC (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vitória SC are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 0.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Vitória SC 50% | Casa Pia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitória SC vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques • Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitória SC 69% | Draw 19% | Casa Pia 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 46% | xG Vitória SC 2.10 / Casa Pia 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Vitória SC attack 1.144 / def 0.896 | Casa Pia attack 0.720 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Vitória SC (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Vitória SC xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Casa Pia xG
46%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitória SC vs Casa Pia kick off?
Vitória SC vs Casa Pia kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 11 May 2026 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What was the final score in Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?
Vitória SC 0 - 1 Casa Pia.
Where is Vitória SC vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What competition is Vitória SC vs Casa Pia part of?
Vitória SC vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Vitória SC a 69% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Vitória SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Vitória SC and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Vitória SC vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitória SC and Casa Pia?
Record (7 meetings): Vitória SC 1W | Draws 4 | Casa Pia 2W.
What form are Vitória SC and Casa Pia in?
Vitória SC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Casa Pia (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vitória SC's attack at 1.14x the league average against Casa Pia's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Casa Pia's attack (0.72x) against Vitória SC's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 1-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitória SC Win
69%
1.45
19%
5.25
12%
8.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Vitória SC xG
Total xG
2.84
0.73
Casa Pia xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.25
19%
Draw
8.46
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
12%
8.20
Win to Nil
33%
3.01
1%
69.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Vitória SC and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Vitória SC and 0.73 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vitória SC's recent record stands at 26W 18D 22L from 66 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Casa Pia, meanwhile, have gone 17W 20D 29L across 66 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Vitória SC against 1.08 for Casa Pia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Vitória SC have managed 17W 9D 7L from 33 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Casa Pia's away record stands at 7W 8D 18L across 33 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitória SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vitória SC are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 1.03 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitória SC
Current Season
Casa Pia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitória SC and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Vitória SC have gone 26W 18D 22L in their last 66 games (1.45 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 17W 20D 29L in their last 66 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitória SC at home or Casa Pia away?
Vitória SC's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitória SC at home: 1.82 PPG; Casa Pia away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Vitória SC or Casa Pia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitória SC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Casa Pia in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitória SC have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Vitória SC
5
Draws
3
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitória SC and Casa Pia?
From 9 meetings on record, Vitória SC have won 1, Casa Pia have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Vitória SC and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Vitória SC 0-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Vitória SC and Casa Pia?
Casa Pia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vitória SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitória SC 46%, Casa Pia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Vitória SC) and 54% (Casa Pia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitória SC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Casa Pia in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitória SC home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitória SC play Casa Pia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Vitória SC's recent matches and 46% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitória SC vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Vitória SC's matches and 54% of Casa Pia's.
Do Vitória SC and Casa Pia tend to score early?
Vitória SC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Casa Pia defy the odds to beat Vitória SC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia beat Vitória SC 0-1 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 33, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitória SC 2.10 xG and Casa Pia 0.73 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vitória SC fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitória SC attack 1.14 / defence 0.90 against Casa Pia attack 0.72 / defence 1.24, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitória SC 69% | Draw 19% | Casa Pia 12%, with Vitória SC to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a Casa Pia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitória SC 47%, Casa Pia 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitória SC's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Casa Pia's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitória SC 1.45 PPG, Casa Pia 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Casa Pia win broke the near-deadlock. Vitória SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Casa Pia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.