Famalicao 0-0 Pacos Ferreira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacos Ferreira at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho plays host to Famalicao versus Pacos Ferreira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 16 January 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Famalicao have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's home record at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho: 1W 3D 4L from 8 Primeira Liga appearances (0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pacos Ferreira (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacos Ferreira's away record: 2W 2D 4L from 8 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Famalicao, 0.80 for Pacos Ferreira — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Famalicao, 1 for Pacos Ferreira and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Pacos Ferreira winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Famalicao goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Pacos Ferreira goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 65% versus Pacos Ferreira 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 65% | Pacos Ferreira 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 0.91 xG and Pacos Ferreira 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.735 / defence 1.247 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.576 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.415. Famalicao's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Famalicao games / 17 Pacos Ferreira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 31% | Draw 32% | Pacos Ferreira 37%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Pacos Ferreira 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacos Ferreira at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pacos Ferreira if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Famalicao 62% | Pacos Ferreira 38%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jan 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 31% | Draw 32% | Pacos Ferreira 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Famalicao 0.91 / Pacos Ferreira 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.735 / def 1.247 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.576 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Pacos Ferreira (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Pacos Ferreira xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira kick off?
Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 16 January 2022 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira?
Famalicao 0 - 0 Pacos Ferreira.
Where is Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira part of?
Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 31% chance of winning, Pacos Ferreira a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pacos Ferreira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Famalicao and Pacos Ferreira will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Pacos Ferreira?
Record (1 meetings): Famalicao 0W | Draws 0 | Pacos Ferreira 1W.
What form are Famalicao and Pacos Ferreira in?
Famalicao (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Famalicao's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Pacos Ferreira's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Pacos Ferreira's attack (0.58x) against Famalicao's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacos Ferreira Win
31%
3.22
32%
3.13
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Famalicao xG
Total xG
1.92
1.02
Pacos Ferreira xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
11%
8.90
15%
6.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 14.9 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Pacos Ferreira expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.02 for Pacos Ferreira, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 17 outings, Famalicao have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 3W 6D 8L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacos Ferreira's form line: 4W 5D 8L from 17 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Famalicao against 1.00 for Pacos Ferreira. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Famalicao have posted 0.75 PPG from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L).
On the road, Pacos Ferreira have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Famalicao are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Pacos Ferreira are on 0.76 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Famalicao have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Pacos Ferreira in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 3W 6D 8L in their last 17 games (0.88 PPG), while Pacos Ferreira have gone 4W 5D 8L in their last 17 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Pacos Ferreira away?
Pacos Ferreira's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 0.75 PPG; Pacos Ferreira away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Famalicao go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pacos Ferreira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Famalicao
1
Draws
1
Pacos Ferreira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Pacos Ferreira?
From 4 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 2, Pacos Ferreira have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Pacos Ferreira last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2023, when Pacos Ferreira 1-3 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Pacos Ferreira?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 62%, Pacos Ferreira 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Famalicao) and 25% (Pacos Ferreira).
On the defensive side: Pacos Ferreira in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Pacos Ferreira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Pacos Ferreira?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Famalicao's recent matches and 38% of Pacos Ferreira's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Pacos Ferreira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Famalicao's recent games and 25% of Pacos Ferreira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Pacos Ferreira tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Pacos Ferreira in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Famalicao's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao and Pacos Ferreira finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 0.91 xG and Pacos Ferreira 1.02 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Famalicao fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Pacos Ferreira landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.73 / defence 1.25 against Pacos Ferreira attack 0.58 / defence 1.10, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 31% | Draw 32% | Pacos Ferreira 37%, with Pacos Ferreira to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 65%, Pacos Ferreira 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 0.88 PPG, Pacos Ferreira 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Famalicao (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.