Famalicao 1-0 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs Estoril fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Famalicao and Estoril meet at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 January 2023 at 20:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Famalicao have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Famalicao are significantly better at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho than their overall form suggests.
Estoril (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Famalicao, 0.90 for Estoril — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Famalicao, 1 for Estoril and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 0–2 with Estoril winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Famalicao goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Estoril goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 52% versus Estoril 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 56% | Estoril 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.34 xG and Estoril 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.958 / defence 0.938 | Estoril attack 0.809 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.018. Data: 51 Famalicao games / 50 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 50% | Draw 28% | Estoril 22%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Estoril 4.55. Famalicao hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Famalicao at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 50% | Estoril 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jan 2023, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 50% | Draw 28% | Estoril 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Famalicao 1.34 / Estoril 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.958 / def 0.938 | Estoril attack 0.809 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Estoril xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Estoril kick off?
Famalicao vs Estoril kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 29 January 2023 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Estoril?
Famalicao 1 - 0 Estoril.
Where is Famalicao vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Estoril part of?
Famalicao vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 50% chance of winning, Estoril a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Famalicao and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Estoril?
Record (2 meetings): Famalicao 1W | Draws 0 | Estoril 1W.
What form are Famalicao and Estoril in?
Famalicao (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Estoril (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Famalicao's attack rating (0.96) and Estoril's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Estoril's attack (0.81x) against Famalicao's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 51/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
50%
1.99
28%
3.54
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.11
0.77
Estoril xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
6%
17.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.5 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.77 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Estoril?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Famalicao have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 14W 15D 21L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estoril's form line: 14W 16D 20L from 50 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Famalicao against 1.16 for Estoril. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Famalicao have posted 1.40 PPG from 25 outings (9W 8D 8L).
On the road, Estoril have gone 7W 6D 12L from 25 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Famalicao are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.04 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Estoril
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Estoril in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 14W 15D 21L in their last 50 games (1.14 PPG), while Estoril have gone 14W 16D 20L in their last 50 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Estoril away?
Famalicao's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.40 PPG; Estoril away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Estoril in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Famalicao won 4-0 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Estoril — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Famalicao
2
Draws
3
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Estoril?
From 10 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 5, Estoril have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Estoril 1-1 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Estoril?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 52%, Estoril 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Famalicao) and 32% (Estoril).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 32% of games; Estoril in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Estoril?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Famalicao's recent matches and 40% of Estoril's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Famalicao's recent games and 32% of Estoril's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Estoril tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Estoril in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Famalicao edge out Estoril 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Estoril 1-0 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.34 xG and Estoril 0.77 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.96 / defence 0.94 against Estoril attack 0.81 / defence 1.01, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 50% | Draw 28% | Estoril 22%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 56%, Estoril 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Estoril's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.14 PPG, Estoril 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.