Estoril 2-0 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Casa Pia at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estoril vs Casa Pia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Estoril and Casa Pia meet at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Monday 16 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Estoril (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Casa Pia have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Casa Pia have posted 5W 1D 1L from 7 away outings — 2.29 PPG. Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Casa Pia are 1.00 PPG clear of Estoril in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Casa Pia half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 40% versus Casa Pia 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Estoril 27% | Casa Pia 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.25 xG and Casa Pia 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.918 / defence 1.303 | Casa Pia attack 1.116 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 0.999. Data: 48 Estoril games / 15 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 33% | Draw 26% | Casa Pia 42%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Casa Pia 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Casa Pia at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Casa Pia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Estoril 50% | Casa Pia 57%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Monday 16 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 33% | Draw 26% | Casa Pia 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Estoril 1.25 / Casa Pia 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.918 / def 1.303 | Casa Pia attack 1.116 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.333 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: Casa Pia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Casa Pia xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Casa Pia kick off?
Estoril vs Casa Pia kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 16 January 2023 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Casa Pia?
Estoril 2 - 0 Casa Pia.
Where is Estoril vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Casa Pia part of?
Estoril vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 33% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Casa Pia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Estoril and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Casa Pia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Estoril and Casa Pia in?
Estoril (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Casa Pia (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Estoril's attack rating (0.92) and Casa Pia's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Casa Pia's attack (1.12x) against Estoril's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 48/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Casa Pia Win
33%
3.07
26%
3.90
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.70
1.45
Casa Pia xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
8%
13.14
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.7 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Estoril and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Estoril and 1.45 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Casa Pia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Estoril come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 4D 7L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Casa Pia sit at 1.80 PPG from 15 outings (8W 3D 4L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Casa Pia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Estoril — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Estoril's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Casa Pia have taken 2.50 points per game from 6 outings (5W 0D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.80 PPG overall record — Casa Pia travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Casa Pia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estoril are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 1.00 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Casa Pia in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Casa Pia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 4W 4D 7L in their last 15 games (1.07 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 8W 3D 4L in their last 15 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Casa Pia away?
Casa Pia's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 0.83 PPG; Casa Pia away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Estoril or Casa Pia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Casa Pia in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Estoril won 4-0 on 10 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Estoril
4
Draws
1
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Casa Pia?
From 8 meetings on record, Estoril have won 3, Casa Pia have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Estoril 0-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Casa Pia?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 50%, Casa Pia 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Estoril) and 67% (Casa Pia).
On the defensive side: Casa Pia in 33%; Estoril have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Casa Pia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Estoril's games and 67% of Casa Pia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estoril vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Estoril's recent games and 67% of Casa Pia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Casa Pia tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estoril cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Casa Pia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat Casa Pia 2-0 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.25 xG and Casa Pia 1.45 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Casa Pia landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.92 / defence 1.30 against Casa Pia attack 1.12 / defence 1.02, drawn from 48/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 33% | Draw 26% | Casa Pia 42%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Estoril win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 27%, Casa Pia 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Casa Pia's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Casa Pia arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Estoril winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.