Boavista 0-4 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SC Braga (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Boavista face SC Braga.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Boavista host SC Braga at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 26 February 2024 at 20:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Boavista — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Boavista have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Braga stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SC Braga have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SC Braga — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Boavista, 2 for SC Braga and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 1–4 with SC Braga winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Boavista trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
SC Braga trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boavista 66% versus SC Braga 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boavista 59% | SC Braga 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boavista 1.53 xG and SC Braga 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boavista attack 0.849 / defence 1.331 | SC Braga attack 1.220 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.240. SC Braga have an above-average attack strength of 1.220 — the away xG of 2.02 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Boavista games / 56 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boavista 29% | Draw 22% | SC Braga 49%. Fair-value odds: Boavista 3.45 | Draw 4.55 | SC Braga 2.04. SC Braga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 2.02) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Braga as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Braga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.55 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Boavista 80% | SC Braga 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boavista vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI • Kick-off: Monday 26 Feb 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boavista 29% | Draw 22% | SC Braga 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG Boavista 1.53 / SC Braga 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Boavista attack 0.849 / def 1.331 | SC Braga attack 1.220 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Boavista xG
Expected Goals
2.02
SC Braga xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boavista vs SC Braga kick off?
Boavista vs SC Braga kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 26 February 2024 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What was the final score in Boavista vs SC Braga?
Boavista 0 - 4 SC Braga.
Where is Boavista vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What competition is Boavista vs SC Braga part of?
Boavista vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Boavista vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Boavista a 29% chance of winning, SC Braga a 49% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boavista vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Boavista and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will Boavista vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and SC Braga?
Record (5 meetings): Boavista 0W | Draws 3 | SC Braga 2W.
What form are Boavista and SC Braga in?
Boavista (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. SC Braga (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Boavista's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against SC Braga's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus Boavista's defence, projects 2.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
29%
3.39
22%
4.65
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Boavista xG
Total xG
3.55
2.02
SC Braga xG
3.39
29%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
13%
7.50
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
4%
25.43
11%
9.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boavista vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Boavista and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Boavista and 2.02 for SC Braga, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Boavista vs SC Braga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Boavista's recent record stands at 18W 14D 24L from 56 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Braga, meanwhile, have gone 38W 7D 11L across 56 games — 2.16 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Braga by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Boavista heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Boavista have managed 11W 10D 7L from 28 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Braga's away record stands at 19W 2D 7L across 28 trips, a 2.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Boavista are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 2.16 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boavista
Blended
SC Braga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boavista and SC Braga in coming into this match?
Boavista have gone 18W 14D 24L in their last 56 games (1.21 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 38W 7D 11L in their last 56 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boavista at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boavista at home: 1.54 PPG; SC Braga away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Boavista or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Boavista have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, SC Braga in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
SC Braga go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2024, when SC Braga won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Boavista's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Boavista
3
Draws
5
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and SC Braga?
From 8 meetings on record, Boavista have won 0, SC Braga have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Boavista and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when SC Braga 3-0 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Boavista and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boavista 71%, SC Braga 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Boavista and 75% for SC Braga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boavista home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boavista play SC Braga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Boavista's games and 57% of SC Braga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Boavista vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Boavista's matches and 75% of SC Braga's.
Do Boavista and SC Braga tend to score early?
Boavista have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SC Braga run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Boavista.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Boavista 0-4 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 23, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 1.53 xG and SC Braga 2.02 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Boavista fell 1.5 short of their projected output. SC Braga outscored their 2.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 0.85 / defence 1.33 against SC Braga attack 1.22 / defence 1.15, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boavista 29% | Draw 22% | SC Braga 49%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 59%, SC Braga 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boavista's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Braga's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Boavista (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Braga (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.