Belenenses 0-2 Tondela – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Belenenses at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Belenenses vs Tondela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 8 as Belenenses welcome Tondela to Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 October 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Belenenses have gone 0W 4D 3L from 7 outings — a 0.57 PPG return. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 1.43 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Belenenses have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa, Belenenses have gone 0W 2D 1L this season (3 games, 0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tondela stand at 2W 0D 5L from 7 Primeira Liga matches — 0.86 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Tondela have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Tondela's away record: 0W 0D 3L from 3 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.86 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.57 PPG (Belenenses) versus 0.86 (Tondela). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Belenenses trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Tondela trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Belenenses 57% and Tondela 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Belenenses 29% | Tondela 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Belenenses 1.37 xG and Tondela 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Belenenses attack 0.885 / defence 1.268 | Tondela attack 0.827 / defence 1.500. League average goals — home 1.031 / away 1.166. Tondela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.500 — this is suppressing Belenenses's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Belenenses games / 7 Tondela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Belenenses 36% | Draw 34% | Tondela 30%. Fair-value odds: Belenenses 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Tondela 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Belenenses as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Belenenses offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Belenenses 100% | Tondela 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Belenenses vs Tondela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Belenenses 36% | Draw 34% | Tondela 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG Belenenses 1.37 / Tondela 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Belenenses attack 0.885 / def 1.268 | Tondela attack 0.827 / def 1.500 | league avg home 1.031 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Belenenses (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Belenenses xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Tondela xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Belenenses vs Tondela kick off?
Belenenses vs Tondela kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa.
What was the final score in Belenenses vs Tondela?
Belenenses 0 - 2 Tondela.
Where is Belenenses vs Tondela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa.
What competition is Belenenses vs Tondela part of?
Belenenses vs Tondela is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Belenenses vs Tondela?
Our statistical model gives Belenenses a 36% chance of winning, Tondela a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Belenenses the favourite.
Will both teams score in Belenenses vs Tondela?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Belenenses and Tondela will score (BTTS).
Will Belenenses vs Tondela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Belenenses and Tondela?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Belenenses and Tondela in?
Belenenses (all comps): 0W-4D-3L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Tondela (all comps): 2W-0D-5L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Belenenses's attack at 0.89x the league average against Tondela's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tondela's attack versus Belenenses's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Belenenses Win
36%
2.74
34%
2.95
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Belenenses xG
Total xG
2.59
1.22
Tondela xG
2.74
36%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
11%
9.30
8%
13.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Belenenses vs Tondela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Belenenses and Tondela expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Belenenses and 1.22 for Tondela, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Belenenses vs Tondela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Belenenses come into this having played 7 games, going 0W 4D 3L for 0.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Belenenses, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Tondela sit at 0.86 PPG from 7 outings (2W 0D 5L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Tondela, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Belenenses on 0.57 PPG, Tondela on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Belenenses's home form reads 0W 2D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Tondela have taken 0.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Tondela's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Belenenses come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Belenenses are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Tondela are on 1.43 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tondela in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Belenenses
Early Season
Tondela
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Belenenses and Tondela in coming into this match?
Belenenses have gone 0W 4D 3L in their last 7 games (0.57 PPG), while Tondela have gone 2W 0D 5L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Belenenses at home or Tondela away?
Belenenses's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Belenenses at home: 0.67 PPG; Tondela away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Belenenses and Tondela runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Belenenses
1
Draws
1
Tondela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Belenenses and Tondela?
From 2 meetings on record, Belenenses have won 0, Tondela have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Belenenses and Tondela last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2022, when Tondela 1-1 Belenenses.
Who has won more matches between Belenenses and Tondela?
Tondela have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Belenenses are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Tondela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Belenenses at 100%, Tondela at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Belenenses and 100% for Tondela. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Belenenses home games / Tondela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Belenenses play Tondela?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Belenenses's games and 100% of Tondela's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Belenenses vs Tondela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Belenenses's matches and 100% of Tondela's.
Do Belenenses and Tondela tend to score early?
Belenenses have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Tondela in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tondela cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Belenenses.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tondela beat Belenenses 0-2 at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa, Regular Season - 8, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Belenenses 1.37 xG and Tondela 1.22 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Belenenses fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Belenenses attack 0.89 / defence 1.27 against Tondela attack 0.83 / defence 1.50, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Belenenses 36% | Draw 34% | Tondela 30%, with Belenenses to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Tondela win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Belenenses 29%, Tondela 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Belenenses's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tondela's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Belenenses 0.57 PPG, Tondela 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tondela win broke the near-deadlock. Belenenses (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Tondela (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.