Belenenses 1-1 Moreirense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Moreirense at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Belenenses vs Moreirense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa plays host to Belenenses versus Moreirense in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Friday 27 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Belenenses's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L L. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Belenenses have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Moreirense have collected 0.33 PPG across 3 Primeira Liga outings this season: 0W 1D 2L. Last five: L D L. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 2.33. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Moreirense have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.00 vs 0.33 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Belenenses half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Moreirense half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Belenenses 33% and Moreirense 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Belenenses 33% | Moreirense 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Belenenses 1.25 xG and Moreirense 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Belenenses attack 0.926 / defence 1.264 | Moreirense attack 0.963 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.084 / away 1.120. Moreirense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing Belenenses's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Belenenses games / 3 Moreirense games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Belenenses 34% | Draw 26% | Moreirense 39%. Fair-value odds: Belenenses 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Moreirense 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Moreirense at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Moreirense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Belenenses 33% | Moreirense 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Belenenses vs Moreirense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Belenenses 34% | Draw 26% | Moreirense 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Belenenses 1.25 / Moreirense 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Belenenses attack 0.926 / def 1.264 | Moreirense attack 0.963 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.084 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Moreirense (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Belenenses xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Moreirense xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Belenenses vs Moreirense kick off?
Belenenses vs Moreirense kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 August 2021 at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa.
What was the final score in Belenenses vs Moreirense?
Belenenses 1 - 1 Moreirense.
Where is Belenenses vs Moreirense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa.
What competition is Belenenses vs Moreirense part of?
Belenenses vs Moreirense is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Belenenses vs Moreirense?
Our statistical model gives Belenenses a 34% chance of winning, Moreirense a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Moreirense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Belenenses vs Moreirense?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Belenenses and Moreirense will score (BTTS).
Will Belenenses vs Moreirense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Belenenses and Moreirense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Belenenses and Moreirense in?
Belenenses (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L. Moreirense (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Belenenses's attack at 0.93x the league average against Moreirense's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Moreirense's attack (0.96x) against Belenenses's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Moreirense Win
34%
2.91
26%
3.81
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Belenenses xG
Total xG
2.62
1.36
Moreirense xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
9%
11.39
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.0 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Belenenses vs Moreirense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Belenenses and Moreirense expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Belenenses and 1.36 for Moreirense, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Belenenses vs Moreirense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Belenenses's recent record stands at 0W 0D 3L from 3 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Belenenses, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Moreirense, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 2L across 3 games — 0.33 PPG, with L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Moreirense, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.00 PPG for Belenenses against 0.33 for Moreirense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Belenenses are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Moreirense are on 1.67 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Moreirense in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Belenenses
Early Season
Moreirense
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Belenenses and Moreirense in coming into this match?
Belenenses have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while Moreirense have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Belenenses
1
Draws
1
Moreirense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Belenenses and Moreirense?
From 2 meetings on record, Belenenses have won 0, Moreirense have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Belenenses and Moreirense last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2022, when Moreirense 4-1 Belenenses.
Who has won more matches between Belenenses and Moreirense?
Moreirense have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Belenenses are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for Belenenses, 100% for Moreirense — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Belenenses and 100% for Moreirense. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Belenenses have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Belenenses home games / Moreirense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Belenenses play Moreirense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Belenenses's games and 100% of Moreirense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Belenenses vs Moreirense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Belenenses's matches and 100% of Moreirense's.
Do Belenenses and Moreirense tend to score early?
Belenenses have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Moreirense in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Belenenses and Moreirense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa, Regular Season - 4, as Belenenses and Moreirense drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Belenenses 1.25 xG and Moreirense 1.36 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Belenenses attack 0.93 / defence 1.26 against Moreirense attack 0.96 / defence 1.25, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Belenenses 34% | Draw 26% | Moreirense 39%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Belenenses 33%, Moreirense 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Belenenses's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Moreirense's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Belenenses 0.00 PPG, Moreirense 0.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Belenenses conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Moreirense conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.