Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice meet at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 March 2025 at 19:15 UTC.
Current Form
Zaglebie Lubin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Zaglebie Lubin are significantly better at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin than their overall form suggests.
Piast Gliwice (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Zaglebie Lubin 1W, Piast Gliwice 3W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Piast Gliwice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Zaglebie Lubin half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 52% versus Piast Gliwice 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 48% | Piast Gliwice 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 0.91 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.842 / defence 1.263 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.943 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.170. Piast Gliwice's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 56 Zaglebie Lubin games / 56 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 24% | Draw 27% | Piast Gliwice 48%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Piast Gliwice 2.08. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Piast Gliwice as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 40% | Piast Gliwice 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 24% | Draw 27% | Piast Gliwice 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 0.91 / Piast Gliwice 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.842 / def 1.263 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.943 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Piast Gliwice xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice?
Zaglebie Lubin 0 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 24% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice?
Record (6 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 1W | Draws 2 | Piast Gliwice 3W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (0.94x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
24%
4.09
27%
3.67
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.30
1.40
Piast Gliwice xG
4.09
24%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
6%
16.51
19%
5.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 14.0 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.40 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zaglebie Lubin's recent record stands at 19W 12D 25L from 56 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 16W 25D 15L across 56 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.30 for Piast Gliwice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Zaglebie Lubin have managed 11W 6D 10L from 27 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 6W 11D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.11 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 19W 12D 25L in their last 56 games (1.23 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 16W 25D 15L in their last 56 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.44 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Zaglebie Lubin have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Zaglebie Lubin
3
Draws
4
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, Piast Gliwice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 52%, Piast Gliwice 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 22% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Piast Gliwice in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 44% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 22% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Zaglebie Lubin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 0.91 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.40 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zaglebie Lubin fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.84 / defence 1.26 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.94 / defence 0.78, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 24% | Draw 27% | Piast Gliwice 48%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 48%, Piast Gliwice 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.23 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.