Wieczysta Kraków 1-3 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 13 as Wieczysta Kraków welcome Jagiellonia to Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 13:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Wieczysta Kraków — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wieczysta Kraków, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wieczysta Kraków have posted 1W 1D 2L at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Jagiellonia have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Wieczysta Kraków at 0.80 PPG versus Jagiellonia's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Wieczysta Kraków in-play tendencies (12 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Jagiellonia in-play tendencies (12 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wieczysta Kraków 67% versus Jagiellonia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wieczysta Kraków 67% | Jagiellonia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wieczysta Kraków 1.35 xG and Jagiellonia 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.915 / defence 1.058 | Jagiellonia attack 1.045 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.273. Data: 12 Wieczysta Kraków games / 45 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 33% | Draw 31% | Jagiellonia 36%. Fair-value odds: Wieczysta Kraków 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Jagiellonia 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Wieczysta Kraków 75% | Jagiellonia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 33% | Draw 31% | Jagiellonia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 59% | xG Wieczysta Kraków 1.35 / Jagiellonia 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.915 / def 1.058 | Jagiellonia attack 1.045 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Jagiellonia xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What was the final score in Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia?
Wieczysta Kraków 1 - 3 Jagiellonia.
Where is Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia part of?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Wieczysta Kraków a 33% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Wieczysta Kraków and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wieczysta Kraków and Jagiellonia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Jagiellonia in?
Wieczysta Kraków (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Wieczysta Kraków's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Wieczysta Kraków's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
33%
3.01
31%
3.24
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Total xG
2.76
1.41
Jagiellonia xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
8%
12.29
9%
10.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Wieczysta Kraków and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.41 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Wieczysta Kraków have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 2W 2D 8L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wieczysta Kraków is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia's form line: 6W 0D 6L from 12 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Jagiellonia are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wieczysta Kraków.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wieczysta Kraków have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Jagiellonia have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jagiellonia's season.
The Goals Picture
Wieczysta Kraków are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.25 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wieczysta Kraków have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wieczysta Kraków
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Wieczysta Kraków have gone 2W 2D 8L in their last 12 games (0.67 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 6W 0D 6L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wieczysta Kraków at home or Jagiellonia away?
Wieczysta Kraków's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wieczysta Kraków at home: 1.00 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wieczysta Kraków and Jagiellonia runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Wieczysta Kraków
0
Draws
1
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wieczysta Kraków and Jagiellonia?
From 1 meetings on record, Wieczysta Kraków have won 0, Jagiellonia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wieczysta Kraków and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Wieczysta Kraków 1-3 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Wieczysta Kraków and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wieczysta Kraków see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wieczysta Kraków 75%, Jagiellonia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Wieczysta Kraków and 50% for Jagiellonia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wieczysta Kraków home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wieczysta Kraków play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Wieczysta Kraków's games and 50% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Wieczysta Kraków's matches and 50% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Wieczysta Kraków and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Wieczysta Kraków have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Wieczysta Kraków.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Wieczysta Kraków 1-3 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wieczysta Kraków 1.35 xG and Jagiellonia 1.41 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Jagiellonia outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.92 / defence 1.06 against Jagiellonia attack 1.04 / defence 0.95, drawn from 12/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wieczysta Kraków 33% | Draw 31% | Jagiellonia 36%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wieczysta Kraków 67%, Jagiellonia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wieczysta Kraków's trading profile (12 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (12 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Wieczysta Kraków (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.