Widzew Łódź 1-2 Motor Lublin – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Widzew Łódź face Motor Lublin.

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Analysis

Motor Lublin make the trip to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź to face Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Saturday 19 April 2025 at 17:30 UK time.

Form

Widzew Łódź (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Widzew Łódź have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Motor Lublin's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Motor Lublin's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Widzew Łódź, 0 for Motor Lublin and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 7.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2024, ended Widzew Łódź 4–3 Motor Lublin — a Widzew Łódź win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 7.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Motor Lublin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 50% versus Motor Lublin 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 43% | Motor Lublin 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.50 xG and Motor Lublin 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.819 / defence 0.982 | Motor Lublin attack 0.781 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.199. Motor Lublin's defence rating of 1.237 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Widzew Łódź's projected output up. Motor Lublin's attack rating of 0.781 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Data: built from Widzew Łódź's last 62 games and Motor Lublin's last 28.

Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 51% | Draw 26% | Motor Lublin 23%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 1.97 | Draw 3.83 | Motor Lublin 4.32. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Widzew Łódź at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Widzew Łódź 30% (last 10 home games) | Motor Lublin 60% (last 10 away games).

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