Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 36%, yet the head-to-head data favours Raków Częstochowa — this Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Pogon Szczecin welcome Raków Częstochowa to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 19 April 2025 at 20:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Pogon Szczecin have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Raków Częstochowa — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Raków Częstochowa have posted 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Pogon Szczecin) versus 2.30 (Raków Częstochowa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Pogon Szczecin's 30% BTTS rate and Raków Częstochowa's 30% (from Pogon Szczecin's last 10 home games and Raków Częstochowa's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
Raków Częstochowa have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Pogon Szczecin.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2024, ended Pogon Szczecin 0–1 Raków Częstochowa — a Raków Częstochowa win.
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 42% versus Raków Częstochowa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 52% | Raków Częstochowa 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.20 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.355 / defence 0.904 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.098 / defence 0.602. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.210. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack rating of 1.355 — their 1.20 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Raków Częstochowa bring a tight defence (rating 0.602, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Pogon Szczecin's projected output down. Data: built from Pogon Szczecin's last 62 games and Raków Częstochowa's last 62.
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 36% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 36%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.76 | Draw 3.62 | Raków Częstochowa 2.77. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Pogon Szczecin 36% and Raków Częstochowa 36%, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pogon Szczecin 30% (last 10 home games) | Raków Częstochowa 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 19 April 2025 at 20:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 36% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.20 / Raków Częstochowa 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.355 / def 0.904 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.098 / def 0.602 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa level at 36% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Raków Częstochowa xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa FAQs
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 20:15 UK time on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Pogon Szczecin 1 - 0 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 29) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 36% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pogon Szczecin's attack at 1.35x the league average against Raków Częstochowa's defence at 0.60x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pogon Szczecin's last 62 games and Raków Częstochowa's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
36%
2.76
28%
3.62
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.40
1.20
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
11%
9.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.20 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 30W 12D 20L from 62 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 31W 18D 13L across 62 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.65 PPG, Raków Częstochowa on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 20W 3D 8L from their last 31 home games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 13W 10D 8L across their last 31 away games, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.55 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Raków Częstochowa in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
Pogon Szczecin (Home) vs Raków Częstochowa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa Form FAQs
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 30W 12D 20L in their last 62 games (1.65 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 31W 18D 13L in their last 62 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.03 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 2 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Raków Częstochowa have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
7
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, Raków Częstochowa have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2026: Raków Częstochowa 3-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 42%, Raków Częstochowa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Pogon Szczecin) and 39% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Raków Częstochowa in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 52% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 39% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 68% of Raków Częstochowa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Raków Częstochowa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Raków Częstochowa 1-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.20 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.20 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Raków Częstochowa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.35 / defence 0.90 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.10 / defence 0.60, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 36% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 36%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 52%, Raków Częstochowa 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.65 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.