Stal Mielec 1-2 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 49%, yet in-form Pogon Szczecin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Pogon Szczecin travel to Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato to take on Stal Mielec in Ekstraklasa (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 February 2025 at 11:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Stal Mielec stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stal Mielec at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Stal Mielec are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Pogon Szczecin have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pogon Szczecin are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Stal Mielec have won 2, Pogon Szczecin 4, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2024, ended Stal Mielec 0–1 Pogon Szczecin — a Pogon Szczecin win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stal Mielec in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 54% versus Pogon Szczecin 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 50% | Pogon Szczecin 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Stal Mielec surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Pogon Szczecin have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.59 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 1.067 / defence 0.985 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.984 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.094. Data: built from Stal Mielec's last 54 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 54.
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 49% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 25%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.03 | Draw 3.90 | Pogon Szczecin 3.99. Stal Mielec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stal Mielec are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pogon Szczecin (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stal Mielec 50% (last 10 home games) | Pogon Szczecin 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato • Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 11:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 49% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Stal Mielec 1.59 / Pogon Szczecin 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 1.067 / def 0.985 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.984 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Pogon Szczecin xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin FAQs
What time does Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 11:15 UK time on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin?
Stal Mielec 1 - 2 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 21) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 49% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stal Mielec's attack rating (1.07) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stal Mielec's last 54 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.90
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.65
1.06
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
5%
19.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.9 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.06 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stal Mielec come into this having played 54 games, going 17W 14D 23L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.63 PPG from 54 outings (26W 10D 18L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Stal Mielec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Stal Mielec's home form reads 13W 8D 5L across their last 26 home games, a 1.81 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Stal Mielec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.19 points per game from their last 26 away games (8W 7D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.63 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stal Mielec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.63 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Stal Mielec (Home) vs Pogon Szczecin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stal Mielec
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin Form FAQs
What form are Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 17W 14D 23L in their last 54 games (1.20 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 26W 10D 18L in their last 54 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.81 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Stal Mielec or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stal Mielec have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 16 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Pogon Szczecin have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Aug 2021, when Pogon Szczecin won Pogon Szczecin 4-1 Stal Mielec.
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Stal Mielec
1
Draws
5
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Stal Mielec have won 2, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 February 2025: Stal Mielec 1-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 50%, Pogon Szczecin 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Stal Mielec) and 46% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 35%; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 31% of games; Pogon Szczecin in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 38% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 46% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 54% of Pogon Szczecin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pogon Szczecin defy the odds to beat Stal Mielec 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Stal Mielec 1-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.59 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.06 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 1.07 / defence 0.98 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.98 / defence 1.04, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 49% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 25%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Pogon Szczecin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 50%, Pogon Szczecin 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.