Gornik Zabrze 3-2 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla to face Gornik Zabrze in Ekstraklasa (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Saturday 15 February 2025 at 16:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Gornik Zabrze have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Gornik Zabrze's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Gornik Zabrze's favour (1.90 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Gornik Zabrze, 1 for Radomiak Radom and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Scoring has been limited in the 6 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 9 Aug 2024, ended Gornik Zabrze 2–1 Radomiak Radom — a Gornik Zabrze win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Gornik Zabrze — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 52% versus Radomiak Radom 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 46% | Radomiak Radom 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.71 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.984 / defence 0.961 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.847 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.093. Radomiak Radom's defence rating of 1.223 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Gornik Zabrze's projected output up. Data: built from Gornik Zabrze's last 54 games and Radomiak Radom's last 54.
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 56% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 19%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 1.77 | Draw 4.06 | Radomiak Radom 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Gornik Zabrze (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gornik Zabrze 40% (last 10 home games) | Radomiak Radom 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 56% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.71 / Radomiak Radom 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.984 / def 0.961 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.847 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Radomiak Radom xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom FAQs
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Gornik Zabrze 3 - 2 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 21) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 56% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gornik Zabrze's attack rating (0.98) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (0.85x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from Gornik Zabrze's last 54 games and Radomiak Radom's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
56%
1.77
25%
4.06
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.60
0.89
Radomiak Radom xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
3%
29.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.3 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 0.89 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gornik Zabrze's recent record stands at 24W 12D 18L from 54 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 27L across 54 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gornik Zabrze by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Radomiak Radom heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Gornik Zabrze have managed 14W 7D 6L from their last 27 home games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 9W 3D 15L across their last 27 away games, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.20 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Gornik Zabrze (Home) vs Radomiak Radom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom Form FAQs
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 24W 12D 18L in their last 54 games (1.56 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 16W 11D 27L in their last 54 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.81 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Gornik Zabrze have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Radomiak Radom won Radomiak Radom 4-0 Gornik Zabrze on 28 Nov 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gornik Zabrze have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gornik Zabrze
3
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gornik Zabrze have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Radomiak Radom 1-3 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 44%, Radomiak Radom 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Gornik Zabrze) and 56% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 26% of games; Radomiak Radom in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 37% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 56% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 78% of Radomiak Radom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gornik Zabrze edge out Radomiak Radom 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Radomiak Radom 3-2 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.71 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.89 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Radomiak Radom outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.85 / defence 1.22, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 56% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 19%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 46%, Radomiak Radom 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gornik Zabrze arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.