Ruch Chorzów 3-5 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruch Chorzów vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ruch Chorzów and Raków Częstochowa meet at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa (matchday 9). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Ruch Chorzów (all games): 1W 3D 4L across their last 8 — 0.75 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings (25%).
Ruch Chorzów's home record over their last 3 home games: 1W 1D 1L (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.75 — Ruch Chorzów are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Raków Częstochowa's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Raków Częstochowa's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Raków Częstochowa are 0.95 PPG clear of Ruch Chorzów over their recent games (1.70 vs 0.75). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Ruch Chorzów goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 8 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Raków Częstochowa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 8 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruch Chorzów 38% versus Raków Częstochowa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruch Chorzów 38% | Raków Częstochowa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruch Chorzów 1.03 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruch Chorzów attack 0.758 / defence 1.078 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.037 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 0.986. Ruch Chorzów's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Ruch Chorzów's last 8 games and Raków Częstochowa's last 40.
Result probabilities: Ruch Chorzów 32% | Draw 32% | Raków Częstochowa 36%. Fair-value odds: Ruch Chorzów 3.11 | Draw 3.09 | Raków Częstochowa 2.81. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ruch Chorzów's last 3 home games and Raków Częstochowa's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ruch Chorzów 33% (last 3 home games) | Raków Częstochowa 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruch Chorzów vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 9 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 24 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruch Chorzów 32% | Draw 32% | Raków Częstochowa 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Ruch Chorzów 1.03 / Raków Częstochowa 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Ruch Chorzów attack 0.758 / def 1.078 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.037 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.376 / away 0.986 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Ruch Chorzów xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Raków Częstochowa xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ruch Chorzów vs Raków Częstochowa FAQs
What time does Ruch Chorzów vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Ruch Chorzów vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Ruch Chorzów vs Raków Częstochowa?
Ruch Chorzów 3 - 5 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Ruch Chorzów vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Ruch Chorzów vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Ruch Chorzów vs Raków Częstochowa is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 9) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Ruch Chorzów vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Ruch Chorzów a 32% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruch Chorzów vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ruch Chorzów and Raków Częstochowa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Ruch Chorzów vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ruch Chorzów's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (1.04x) against Ruch Chorzów's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Ruch Chorzów's last 8 games and Raków Częstochowa's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
32%
3.11
32%
3.09
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Ruch Chorzów xG
Total xG
2.14
1.10
Raków Częstochowa xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
13%
7.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ruch Chorzów vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruch Chorzów vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Ruch Chorzów and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Ruch Chorzów and 1.10 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruch Chorzów vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ruch Chorzów's recent record stands at 1W 3D 4L from 8 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 1L across 8 games — 2.12 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Raków Częstochowa by 1.37 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ruch Chorzów heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Ruch Chorzów are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.75 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruch Chorzów
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
Ruch Chorzów (Home) vs Raków Częstochowa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ruch Chorzów
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
❓ Ruch Chorzów vs Raków Częstochowa Form FAQs
What form are Ruch Chorzów and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Ruch Chorzów have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 games (0.75 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 5W 2D 1L in their last 8 (2.12 PPG).
Have Ruch Chorzów or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruch Chorzów have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Ruch Chorzów and Raków Częstochowa, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ruch Chorzów
1
Draws
1
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Ruch Chorzów vs Raków Częstochowa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ruch Chorzów and Raków Częstochowa?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Ruch Chorzów have won 0, Raków Częstochowa have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ruch Chorzów and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 March 2024: Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Ruch Chorzów.
Who has won more matches between Ruch Chorzów and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ruch Chorzów are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruch Chorzów 38%, Raków Częstochowa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Ruch Chorzów) and 50% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 50%; Ruch Chorzów have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruch Chorzów home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ruch Chorzów vs Raków Częstochowa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ruch Chorzów and Raków Częstochowa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Ruch Chorzów's recent matches and 50% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ruch Chorzów and Raków Częstochowa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Ruch Chorzów's recent games and 50% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruch Chorzów and Raków Częstochowa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Ruch Chorzów's recent matches and 75% of Raków Częstochowa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Raków Częstochowa cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over Ruch Chorzów.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Ruch Chorzów 3-5 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruch Chorzów 1.03 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.10 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. Ruch Chorzów beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Raków Częstochowa outscored their 1.10 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruch Chorzów attack 0.76 / defence 1.08 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.04 / defence 0.99, drawn from 8/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruch Chorzów 32% | Draw 32% | Raków Częstochowa 36%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruch Chorzów 38%, Raków Częstochowa 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruch Chorzów's trading profile (8 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (8 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Ruch Chorzów scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Raków Częstochowa scored 5 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.