Korona Kielce 1-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Korona Kielce at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Suzuki Arena plays host to Korona Kielce versus Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 22 September 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Korona Kielce's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Korona Kielce have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Korona Kielce's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Suzuki Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Korona Kielce are significantly better at Suzuki Arena than their overall form suggests.
Widzew Łódź have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Korona Kielce, 1 for Widzew Łódź and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 3–0 with Korona Kielce winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Korona Kielce — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 56% versus Widzew Łódź 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Korona Kielce 46% | Widzew Łódź 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.36 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 0.890 / defence 0.901 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.005 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 0.931. Data: 41 Korona Kielce games / 42 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 47% | Draw 31% | Widzew Łódź 22%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Widzew Łódź 4.55. Korona Kielce hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Korona Kielce are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Korona Kielce if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Korona Kielce 40% | Widzew Łódź 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Suzuki Arena • Kick-off: Friday 22 Sep 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 47% | Draw 31% | Widzew Łódź 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Korona Kielce 1.36 / Widzew Łódź 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 0.890 / def 0.901 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.005 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.381 / away 0.931 • Poisson stance: Korona Kielce (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Widzew Łódź xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 22 September 2023 at Suzuki Arena.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź?
Korona Kielce 1 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Suzuki Arena.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 47% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Korona Kielce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź?
Record (2 meetings): Korona Kielce 1W | Draws 0 | Widzew Łódź 1W.
What form are Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź in?
Korona Kielce (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Korona Kielce's attack at 0.89x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (1.00x) against Korona Kielce's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Korona Kielce Win
47%
2.11
31%
3.25
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
2.20
0.84
Widzew Łódź xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
6%
17.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 0.84 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Korona Kielce's recent record stands at 12W 10D 19L from 41 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Korona Kielce, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Widzew Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 18L across 41 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Korona Kielce against 1.24 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Korona Kielce have managed 9W 4D 7L from 20 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Korona Kielce are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Widzew Łódź's away record stands at 6W 6D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.15 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Early Season
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 12W 10D 19L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 14W 9D 18L in their last 41 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Korona Kielce's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.55 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Korona Kielce or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Korona Kielce have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Korona Kielce go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Korona Kielce won 0-3 on 27 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Korona Kielce have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Korona Kielce
1
Draws
2
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Korona Kielce have won 5, Widzew Łódź have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Korona Kielce 1-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 50%, Widzew Łódź 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Korona Kielce) and 40% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź in 35%; Widzew Łódź in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Korona Kielce play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 45% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 40% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Korona Kielce have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suzuki Arena, Regular Season - 9, as Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.36 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.84 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.89 / defence 0.90 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 47% | Draw 31% | Widzew Łódź 22%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 46%, Widzew Łódź 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.12 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.