Raków Częstochowa 1-0 Nieciecza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Nieciecza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Raków Częstochowa and Nieciecza meet at zondacrypto Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Raków Częstochowa have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at zondacrypto Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at zondacrypto Arena this season.
Nieciecza's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nieciecza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nieciecza away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Raków Częstochowa's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Nieciecza's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Raków Częstochowa have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with Nieciecza managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 3–2 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Raków Częstochowa and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Raków Częstochowa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Nieciecza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 52% versus Nieciecza 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 48% | Nieciecza 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.33 xG and Nieciecza 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.762 / defence 0.876 | Nieciecza attack 0.944 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.161. Raków Częstochowa's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nieciecza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Raków Częstochowa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Raków Częstochowa games / 21 Nieciecza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 43% | Draw 32% | Nieciecza 25%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Nieciecza 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Raków Częstochowa 50% | Nieciecza 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Nieciecza | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: zondacrypto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 43% | Draw 32% | Nieciecza 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.33 / Nieciecza 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.762 / def 0.876 | Nieciecza attack 0.944 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Nieciecza xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Nieciecza kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Nieciecza kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at zondacrypto Arena.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Nieciecza?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 0 Nieciecza.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Nieciecza being played?
The match is being played at zondacrypto Arena.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Nieciecza part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Nieciecza is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Nieciecza?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 43% chance of winning, Nieciecza a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Nieciecza?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Nieciecza will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Nieciecza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Nieciecza?
Record (3 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 3W | Draws 0 | Nieciecza 0W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Nieciecza in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Nieciecza (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (0.76) and Nieciecza's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nieciecza's attack (0.94x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 55/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
43%
2.32
32%
3.13
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.29
0.96
Nieciecza xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
7%
15.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Nieciecza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Nieciecza expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.96 for Nieciecza, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Nieciecza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 21 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 9W 4D 8L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nieciecza's form line: 5W 6D 10L from 21 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Nieciecza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nieciecza.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 1.20 PPG from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
On the road, Nieciecza have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Nieciecza are on 1.24 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nieciecza in 67%.
Last 21 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Nieciecza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Nieciecza in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 9W 4D 8L in their last 21 games (1.48 PPG), while Nieciecza have gone 5W 6D 10L in their last 21 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Nieciecza away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.20 PPG; Nieciecza away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Raków Częstochowa have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 0-3 on 16 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Raków Częstochowa have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nieciecza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Raków Częstochowa
0
Draws
0
Nieciecza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Nieciecza?
From 4 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 4, Nieciecza have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Nieciecza last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 1-0 Nieciecza.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Nieciecza?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Nieciecza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 50%, Nieciecza 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Raków Częstochowa) and 50% (Nieciecza).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Nieciecza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Nieciecza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Raków Częstochowa's games and 70% of Nieciecza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Nieciecza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 50% of Nieciecza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Nieciecza tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Nieciecza in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out Nieciecza 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Nieciecza 1-0 at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.33 xG and Nieciecza 0.96 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nieciecza landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.76 / defence 0.88 against Nieciecza attack 0.94 / defence 1.23, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 43% | Draw 32% | Nieciecza 25%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 48%, Nieciecza 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Nieciecza's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Nieciecza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.