Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Raków Częstochowa (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Raków Częstochowa face Korona Kielce.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 16 as Raków Częstochowa welcome Korona Kielce to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 13:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków this season.
Korona Kielce — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Korona Kielce have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Raków Częstochowa, 1 for Korona Kielce and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2024, ended 2–0 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Korona Kielce in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 47% versus Korona Kielce 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Raków Częstochowa 39% | Korona Kielce 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.54 xG and Korona Kielce 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.975 / defence 0.696 | Korona Kielce attack 0.821 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.243. Raków Częstochowa's defence rating of 0.696 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Raków Częstochowa games / 49 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 57% | Draw 26% | Korona Kielce 17%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Korona Kielce 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 30% | Korona Kielce 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 57% | Draw 26% | Korona Kielce 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 40% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.54 / Korona Kielce 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.975 / def 0.696 | Korona Kielce attack 0.821 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (57%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Korona Kielce xG
40%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 1 Korona Kielce.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 57% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce?
Record (4 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 3W | Draws 0 | Korona Kielce 1W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Korona Kielce (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 0.97x the league average against Korona Kielce's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Korona Kielce's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
57%
1.75
26%
3.90
17%
5.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.25
0.71
Korona Kielce xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
5.82
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
28%
3.56
4%
27.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 11.5 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.71 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 23W 14D 12L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Korona Kielce's form line: 12W 18D 19L from 49 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Korona Kielce.
Venue Form
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 2.00 PPG from 24 outings (14W 6D 4L).
On the road, Korona Kielce have gone 4W 9D 11L from 24 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.06 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 23W 14D 12L in their last 49 games (1.69 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 12W 18D 19L in their last 49 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Korona Kielce away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.00 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Korona Kielce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Korona Kielce in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 8 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Raków Częstochowa have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2025, when Raków Częstochowa won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Korona Kielce specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
1
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce?
From 8 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, Korona Kielce have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 38%, Korona Kielce 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Raków Częstochowa) and 42% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Korona Kielce in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Korona Kielce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 50% of Korona Kielce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 42% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 16, as Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.54 xG and Korona Kielce 0.71 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.97 / defence 0.70 against Korona Kielce attack 0.82 / defence 1.06, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 57% | Draw 26% | Korona Kielce 17%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 39%, Korona Kielce 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.