Raków Częstochowa 1-0 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Gornik Zabrze travel to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków to take on Raków Częstochowa. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 February 2025, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 4W 3D 3L at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Gornik Zabrze have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Gornik Zabrze — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Raków Częstochowa, 3 for Gornik Zabrze and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 49% versus Gornik Zabrze 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 40% | Gornik Zabrze 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.48 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.958 / defence 0.999 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.080 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.116. Data: 55 Raków Częstochowa games / 55 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 43% | Draw 27% | Gornik Zabrze 30%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Gornik Zabrze 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gornik Zabrze (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Raków Częstochowa 40% | Gornik Zabrze 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Friday 21 Feb 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 43% | Draw 27% | Gornik Zabrze 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.48 / Gornik Zabrze 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.958 / def 0.999 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.080 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Gornik Zabrze xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 21 February 2025 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 0 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 43% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (6 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 1W | Draws 2 | Gornik Zabrze 3W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (0.96) and Gornik Zabrze's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
43%
2.33
27%
3.74
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.69
1.21
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
13%
7.77
7%
14.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.21 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Raków Częstochowa come into this having played 55 games, going 25W 17D 13L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-W. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gornik Zabrze sit at 1.58 PPG from 55 outings (25W 12D 18L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Raków Częstochowa on 1.67 PPG, Gornik Zabrze on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Raków Częstochowa's home form reads 14W 8D 5L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Gornik Zabrze have taken 1.30 points per game from 27 outings (10W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.36 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 25W 17D 13L in their last 55 games (1.67 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 25W 12D 18L in their last 55 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.85 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 3 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gornik Zabrze have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Gornik Zabrze specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
6
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, Gornik Zabrze have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 1-2 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 44%, Gornik Zabrze 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Raków Częstochowa) and 56% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Gornik Zabrze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 59% of Gornik Zabrze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 56% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out Gornik Zabrze 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Gornik Zabrze 1-0 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.48 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.21 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gornik Zabrze landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.96 / defence 1.00 against Gornik Zabrze attack 1.08 / defence 1.09, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 43% | Draw 27% | Gornik Zabrze 30%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 40%, Gornik Zabrze 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 1.67 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.