Radomiak Radom 2-3 Motor Lublin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Motor Lublin make the trip to Stadion im. Braci Czachorów to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Radomiak Radom's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Radomiak Radom have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów than their overall form suggests.
Motor Lublin (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Motor Lublin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Motor Lublin have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Radomiak Radom register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Motor Lublin in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Radomiak Radom, 2 for Motor Lublin and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Motor Lublin — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 67% and Motor Lublin 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 60% | Motor Lublin 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.50 xG and Motor Lublin 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.832 / defence 1.039 | Motor Lublin attack 0.935 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.317. Data: 43 Radomiak Radom games / 43 Motor Lublin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 39% | Draw 32% | Motor Lublin 29%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Motor Lublin 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | Motor Lublin 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion im. Braci Czachorów • Kick-off: Monday 12 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 39% | Draw 32% | Motor Lublin 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 60% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.50 / Motor Lublin 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.832 / def 1.039 | Motor Lublin attack 0.935 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Motor Lublin xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 12 October 2026 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin?
Radomiak Radom 2 - 3 Motor Lublin.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 39% chance of winning, Motor Lublin a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin?
Record (4 meetings): Radomiak Radom 0W | Draws 2 | Motor Lublin 2W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Motor Lublin (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.83x the league average against Motor Lublin's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Motor Lublin's attack (0.94x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
39%
2.58
32%
3.09
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.78
1.28
Motor Lublin xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
11%
9.27
6%
15.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.28 for Motor Lublin, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 43 games, going 13W 13D 17L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Motor Lublin sit at 1.14 PPG from 43 outings (11W 16D 16L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Motor Lublin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.14 for Motor Lublin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 10W 5D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Motor Lublin have taken 1.00 points per game from 21 outings (5W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Motor Lublin are on 1.28 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Motor Lublin in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Motor Lublin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 13W 13D 17L in their last 43 games (1.21 PPG), while Motor Lublin have gone 11W 16D 16L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Motor Lublin away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.67 PPG; Motor Lublin away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 12 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Motor Lublin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Radomiak Radom
2
Draws
3
Motor Lublin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin?
From 5 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 0, Motor Lublin have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin last play each other?
They last met on 12 October 2026, when Radomiak Radom 2-3 Motor Lublin.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin?
Motor Lublin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Radomiak Radom, 67% for Motor Lublin — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Radomiak Radom and 67% for Motor Lublin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Motor Lublin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Motor Lublin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Radomiak Radom's games and 67% of Motor Lublin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Radomiak Radom's matches and 67% of Motor Lublin's.
Do Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Motor Lublin in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Motor Lublin defy the odds to beat Radomiak Radom 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Motor Lublin beat Radomiak Radom 2-3 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.50 xG and Motor Lublin 1.28 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Motor Lublin outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.83 / defence 1.04 against Motor Lublin attack 0.94 / defence 1.14, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 39% | Draw 32% | Motor Lublin 29%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Motor Lublin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 60%, Motor Lublin 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Motor Lublin's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.21 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Motor Lublin win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.