Radomiak Radom 3-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 37%, yet in-form Legia Warszawa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom host Legia Warszawa at Stadion Radomiaka in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 19:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom at Stadion Radomiaka this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Legia Warszawa — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Radomiak Radom, 4 for Legia Warszawa and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 1–4 with Legia Warszawa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Radomiak Radom trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Legia Warszawa trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 51% versus Legia Warszawa 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 53% | Legia Warszawa 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.31 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.963 / defence 1.076 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.078 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.122. Data: 55 Radomiak Radom games / 55 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 37% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 36%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Legia Warszawa 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Legia Warszawa (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 70% | Legia Warszawa 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 37% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.31 / Legia Warszawa 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.963 / def 1.076 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.078 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Legia Warszawa xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Radomiak Radom 3 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 37% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa?
Record (6 meetings): Radomiak Radom 2W | Draws 0 | Legia Warszawa 4W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (0.96) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
37%
2.73
27%
3.71
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.61
1.30
Legia Warszawa xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
10%
10.03
10%
10.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.5 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.30 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 16W 11D 28L from 55 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa, meanwhile, have gone 26W 17D 12L across 55 games — 1.73 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Legia Warszawa by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Radomiak Radom heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 7W 8D 12L from 27 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Legia Warszawa's away record stands at 11W 9D 7L across 27 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.64 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 16W 11D 28L in their last 55 games (1.07 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 26W 17D 12L in their last 55 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Legia Warszawa's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.07 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2026, when Legia Warszawa won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
6
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Legia Warszawa have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Legia Warszawa 5-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 63%, Legia Warszawa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Radomiak Radom) and 41% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Radomiak Radom's games and 52% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 41% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Legia Warszawa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Legia Warszawa 3-1 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.31 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.30 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.96 / defence 1.08 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.08 / defence 0.97, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 37% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 36%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 53%, Legia Warszawa 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Radomiak Radom winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.