Puszcza Niepołomice 2-2 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Puszcza Niepołomice at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Puszcza Niepołomice host Zaglebie Lubin at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 February 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Puszcza Niepołomice — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zaglebie Lubin stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Puszcza Niepołomice have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, Zaglebie Lubin 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Puszcza Niepołomice trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Zaglebie Lubin trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Puszcza Niepołomice 70% and Zaglebie Lubin 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Puszcza Niepołomice 50% | Zaglebie Lubin 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.65 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.974 / defence 1.139 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.923 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.218. Zaglebie Lubin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Puszcza Niepołomice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Puszcza Niepołomice games / 55 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 44% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 27%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Puszcza Niepołomice are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Puszcza Niepołomice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Puszcza Niepołomice 70% | Zaglebie Lubin 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 44% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 1.65 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.974 / def 1.139 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.923 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Puszcza Niepołomice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Zaglebie Lubin xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Puszcza Niepołomice 2 - 2 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 44% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Puszcza Niepołomice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (1 meetings): Puszcza Niepołomice 0W | Draws 0 | Zaglebie Lubin 1W.
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Puszcza Niepołomice's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Zaglebie Lubin's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Puszcza Niepołomice's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Puszcza Niepołomice Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.45
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
2.93
1.28
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
5%
19.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.3 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.28 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Puszcza Niepołomice come into this having played 20 games, going 5W 6D 9L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D. The sample for Puszcza Niepołomice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.15 PPG from 20 outings (6W 5D 9L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Puszcza Niepołomice on 1.05 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Puszcza Niepołomice's home form reads 4W 4D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Puszcza Niepołomice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.00 points per game from 10 outings (3W 1D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Puszcza Niepołomice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.05 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 5W 6D 9L in their last 20 games (1.05 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 6W 5D 9L in their last 20 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Puszcza Niepołomice at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 1.60 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Zaglebie Lubin go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Puszcza Niepołomice's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
1
Draws
3
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 4 meetings on record, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2025, when Puszcza Niepołomice 1-2 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Puszcza Niepołomice and Zaglebie Lubin?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Puszcza Niepołomice 70%, Zaglebie Lubin 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Puszcza Niepołomice) and 60% (Zaglebie Lubin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Puszcza Niepołomice play Zaglebie Lubin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Puszcza Niepołomice's games and 40% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Puszcza Niepołomice's matches and 60% of Zaglebie Lubin's.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Puszcza Niepołomice have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Puszcza Niepołomice and Zaglebie Lubin share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Puszcza Niepołomice and Zaglebie Lubin finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.65 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.28 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.97 / defence 1.14 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.92 / defence 1.22, drawn from 20/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 44% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 27%, with Puszcza Niepołomice to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 50%, Zaglebie Lubin 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Puszcza Niepołomice 1.05 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.