Piast Gliwice 0-3 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa meet at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 March 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Piast Gliwice have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice at Stadion Miejski this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Raków Częstochowa (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's away record: 6W 4D 0L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Raków Częstochowa arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 7 meetings, Raków Częstochowa have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Piast Gliwice's 2, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Piast Gliwice winning.
It is worth noting that Raków Częstochowa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 44% versus Raków Częstochowa 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Piast Gliwice 32% | Raków Częstochowa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 0.84 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.936 / defence 0.971 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.965 / defence 0.655. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.154. Raków Częstochowa's defence strength of 0.655 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Piast Gliwice games / 57 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 28% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 41%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Raków Częstochowa 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 50% | Raków Częstochowa 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Mar 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 28% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Piast Gliwice 0.84 / Raków Częstochowa 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.936 / def 0.971 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.965 / def 0.655 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Raków Częstochowa xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Piast Gliwice 0 - 3 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 28% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (7 meetings): Piast Gliwice 2W | Draws 0 | Raków Częstochowa 5W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (0.96x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
28%
3.59
31%
3.19
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
1.92
1.08
Raków Częstochowa xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
9%
10.58
18%
5.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 15.9 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.08 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 17W 25D 15L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa's form line: 27W 17D 13L from 57 games, 1.72 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Piast Gliwice against 1.72 for Raków Częstochowa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.54 PPG from 28 outings (10W 13D 5L).
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 11W 9D 8L from 28 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.49 scored and 0.93 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Raków Częstochowa in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 17W 25D 15L in their last 57 games (1.33 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 27W 17D 13L in their last 57 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.54 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 0-3 on 8 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Piast Gliwice
0
Draws
7
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 3, Raków Częstochowa have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Piast Gliwice 1-3 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 46%, Raków Częstochowa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Piast Gliwice) and 39% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Raków Częstochowa in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 54% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 39% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Raków Częstochowa run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Piast Gliwice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Piast Gliwice 0-3 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 0.84 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.08 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Piast Gliwice fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Raków Częstochowa outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.96 / defence 0.66, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 28% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 41%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 32%, Raków Częstochowa 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.33 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.