Piast Gliwice 1-3 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 20 as Piast Gliwice welcome Gornik Zabrze to Stadion Miejski. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gornik Zabrze stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Gornik Zabrze have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Piast Gliwice at 1.50 PPG versus Gornik Zabrze's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Piast Gliwice, 0 for Gornik Zabrze and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Gornik Zabrze in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 44% versus Gornik Zabrze 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Piast Gliwice 27% | Gornik Zabrze 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.44 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.982 / defence 0.806 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.053 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.192. Data: 52 Piast Gliwice games / 53 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 46% | Draw 29% | Gornik Zabrze 26%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Gornik Zabrze 3.85. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Piast Gliwice as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Piast Gliwice 50% | Gornik Zabrze 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 46% | Draw 29% | Gornik Zabrze 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.44 / Gornik Zabrze 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.982 / def 0.806 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.053 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Gornik Zabrze xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Piast Gliwice 1 - 3 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 46% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (5 meetings): Piast Gliwice 2W | Draws 3 | Gornik Zabrze 0W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Piast Gliwice's attack rating (0.98) and Gornik Zabrze's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.48
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.45
1.01
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
6%
16.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.01 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 18W 20D 14L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gornik Zabrze's form line: 20W 14D 18L from 52 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.42 PPG, Gornik Zabrze on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.40 PPG from 25 outings (9W 8D 8L).
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 8W 6D 11L from 25 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.29 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 18W 20D 14L in their last 52 games (1.42 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 20W 14D 18L in their last 52 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.40 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Gornik Zabrze have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Gornik Zabrze specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Piast Gliwice
3
Draws
4
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 3, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 48%, Gornik Zabrze 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Piast Gliwice) and 44% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Gornik Zabrze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 56% of Gornik Zabrze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 44% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gornik Zabrze cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Piast Gliwice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Piast Gliwice 1-3 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.44 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.01 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.98 / defence 0.81 against Gornik Zabrze attack 1.05 / defence 0.98, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 46% | Draw 29% | Gornik Zabrze 26%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Gornik Zabrze win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 27%, Gornik Zabrze 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.42 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.