Korona Kielce 2-1 ŁKS Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Korona Kielce at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Korona Kielce vs ŁKS Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Suzuki Arena plays host to Korona Kielce versus ŁKS Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Monday 12 February 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Korona Kielce have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Suzuki Arena, Korona Kielce have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
ŁKS Łódź (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ŁKS Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ŁKS Łódź away from home this season: 0W 0D 8L from 8 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.38 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Korona Kielce. A 0.80 PPG lead over ŁKS Łódź (1.20 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Korona Kielce 0W, ŁKS Łódź 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with ŁKS Łódź winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Korona Kielce — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
ŁKS Łódź — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 56% versus ŁKS Łódź 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Korona Kielce 28% | ŁKS Łódź 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.89 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 0.999 / defence 1.025 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.720 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.212. ŁKS Łódź bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Korona Kielce's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Korona Kielce games / 18 ŁKS Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 60% | Draw 23% | ŁKS Łódź 17%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | ŁKS Łódź 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Korona Kielce (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Korona Kielce are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Korona Kielce 50% | ŁKS Łódź 38%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs ŁKS Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Suzuki Arena • Kick-off: Monday 12 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 60% | Draw 23% | ŁKS Łódź 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG Korona Kielce 1.89 / ŁKS Łódź 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 0.999 / def 1.025 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.720 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Korona Kielce (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
0.89
ŁKS Łódź xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Korona Kielce vs ŁKS Łódź kick off?
Korona Kielce vs ŁKS Łódź kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 12 February 2024 at Suzuki Arena.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs ŁKS Łódź?
Korona Kielce 2 - 1 ŁKS Łódź.
Where is Korona Kielce vs ŁKS Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Suzuki Arena.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs ŁKS Łódź part of?
Korona Kielce vs ŁKS Łódź is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 60% chance of winning, ŁKS Łódź a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Korona Kielce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Korona Kielce and ŁKS Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Korona Kielce vs ŁKS Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and ŁKS Łódź?
Record (1 meetings): Korona Kielce 0W | Draws 0 | ŁKS Łódź 1W.
What form are Korona Kielce and ŁKS Łódź in?
Korona Kielce (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. ŁKS Łódź (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Korona Kielce's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against ŁKS Łódź's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. Flip it around — ŁKS Łódź's attack (0.72x) against Korona Kielce's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 52/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Korona Kielce Win
60%
1.66
23%
4.30
17%
5.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
2.78
0.89
ŁKS Łódź xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
5.99
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
15%
6.60
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
3%
39.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and ŁKS Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 0.89 for ŁKS Łódź, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs ŁKS Łódź?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Korona Kielce come into this having played 18 games, going 3W 9D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ŁKS Łódź sit at 0.56 PPG from 18 outings (2W 4D 12L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for ŁKS Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Korona Kielce carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of ŁKS Łódź — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Korona Kielce's home form reads 2W 4D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, ŁKS Łódź have taken 0.00 points per game from 8 outings (0W 0D 8L). That's a step down from their 0.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of ŁKS Łódź's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Korona Kielce come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; ŁKS Łódź are on 0.72 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Blended
ŁKS Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Korona Kielce and ŁKS Łódź in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 3W 9D 6L in their last 18 games (1.00 PPG), while ŁKS Łódź have gone 2W 4D 12L in their last 18 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or ŁKS Łódź away?
Korona Kielce's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.25 PPG; ŁKS Łódź away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Korona Kielce
0
Draws
1
ŁKS Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and ŁKS Łódź?
From 2 meetings on record, Korona Kielce have won 1, ŁKS Łódź have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and ŁKS Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2024, when Korona Kielce 2-1 ŁKS Łódź.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Korona Kielce see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 62%, ŁKS Łódź 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Korona Kielce) and 62% (ŁKS Łódź).
On the defensive side: ŁKS Łódź in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / ŁKS Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Korona Kielce play ŁKS Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 38% of ŁKS Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Korona Kielce vs ŁKS Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 62% of ŁKS Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and ŁKS Łódź tend to score early?
Korona Kielce have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, ŁKS Łódź in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Korona Kielce edge out ŁKS Łódź 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Korona Kielce beat ŁKS Łódź 2-1 at Suzuki Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.89 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.89 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against ŁKS Łódź attack 0.72 / defence 1.28, drawn from 52/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 60% | Draw 23% | ŁKS Łódź 17%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 28%, ŁKS Łódź 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Korona Kielce arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.56. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.