Legia Warszawa 0-0 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 45%, yet in-form Pogon Szczecin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa host Pogon Szczecin at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 March 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Legia Warszawa have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pogon Szczecin are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Legia Warszawa, 3 for Pogon Szczecin and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Legia Warszawa in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 61% versus Pogon Szczecin 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 52% | Pogon Szczecin 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.63 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.284 / defence 0.922 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.177 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.212. Legia Warszawa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — their λ of 1.63 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 59 Legia Warszawa games / 59 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 45% | Draw 24% | Pogon Szczecin 31%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Pogon Szczecin 3.23. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pogon Szczecin (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 80% | Pogon Szczecin 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 28 Mar 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 45% | Draw 24% | Pogon Szczecin 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.63 / Pogon Szczecin 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.284 / def 0.922 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.177 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Pogon Szczecin xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 28 March 2025 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Legia Warszawa 0 - 0 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 45% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (6 meetings): Legia Warszawa 1W | Draws 2 | Pogon Szczecin 3W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Legia Warszawa's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
45%
2.23
24%
4.12
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.94
1.31
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
6%
16.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.31 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 59 games, going 27W 18D 14L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.66 PPG from 59 outings (29W 11D 19L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 1.68 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 16W 8D 5L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.31 points per game from 29 outings (10W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.69 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 27W 18D 14L in their last 59 games (1.68 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 29W 11D 19L in their last 59 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.93 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Legia Warszawa go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Legia Warszawa
3
Draws
3
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 4, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 0-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 66%, Pogon Szczecin 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Legia Warszawa) and 48% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 34%; Pogon Szczecin in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 66% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 41% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 48% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Legia Warszawa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.63 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.31 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Legia Warszawa fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Pogon Szczecin landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.28 / defence 0.92 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.18 / defence 0.88, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 45% | Draw 24% | Pogon Szczecin 31%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 52%, Pogon Szczecin 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.68 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.