Lechia Gdansk 1-0 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk plays host to Lechia Gdansk versus Slask Wroclaw in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 13:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lechia Gdansk have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Lechia Gdansk have gone 1W 2D 5L this season (8 games, 0.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game.
Slask Wroclaw (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slask Wroclaw's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Lechia Gdansk, 0.60 for Slask Wroclaw — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Lechia Gdansk 1W, Slask Wroclaw 1W, 3D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Lechia Gdansk half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Slask Wroclaw half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 65% versus Slask Wroclaw 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 53% | Slask Wroclaw 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 0.94 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.577 / defence 1.267 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.844 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.224. Lechia Gdansk's attack strength of 0.577 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Lechia Gdansk games / 50 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 27% | Draw 28% | Slask Wroclaw 45%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Slask Wroclaw 2.22. Slask Wroclaw hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slask Wroclaw at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lechia Gdansk 50% | Slask Wroclaw 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 27% | Draw 28% | Slask Wroclaw 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Lechia Gdansk 0.94 / Slask Wroclaw 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.577 / def 1.267 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.844 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Slask Wroclaw xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw?
Lechia Gdansk 1 - 0 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 27% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (5 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 1W | Draws 3 | Slask Wroclaw 1W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lechia Gdansk's attack at 0.58x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slask Wroclaw's attack (0.84x) against Lechia Gdansk's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 17/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
27%
3.74
28%
3.56
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.25
1.31
Slask Wroclaw xG
3.74
27%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
7%
13.86
18%
5.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.9 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.31 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lechia Gdansk's recent record stands at 2W 5D 10L from 17 games, a 0.65 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slask Wroclaw, meanwhile, have gone 2W 7D 8L across 17 games — 0.76 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.65 PPG for Lechia Gdansk against 0.76 for Slask Wroclaw. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lechia Gdansk have managed 1W 2D 5L from 8 games — 0.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slask Wroclaw's away record stands at 0W 3D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.38 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 0.88 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 5D 10L in their last 17 games (0.65 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 2W 7D 8L in their last 17 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (0.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 0.62 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Slask Wroclaw — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lechia Gdansk
3
Draws
1
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw?
From 6 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2024, when Lechia Gdansk 1-0 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw?
Lechia Gdansk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lechia Gdansk see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 50%, Slask Wroclaw 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Lechia Gdansk) and 50% (Slask Wroclaw).
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk have failed to score in 38% of games; Slask Wroclaw in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Slask Wroclaw?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 38% of Slask Wroclaw's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 50% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lechia Gdansk defy the odds to beat Slask Wroclaw 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Slask Wroclaw 1-0 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 0.94 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.31 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slask Wroclaw landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.58 / defence 1.27 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.84 / defence 1.10, drawn from 17/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 27% | Draw 28% | Slask Wroclaw 45%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Lechia Gdansk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 53%, Slask Wroclaw 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 0.65 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lechia Gdansk win broke the near-deadlock. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.