Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Polsat Plus Arena to take on Lechia Gdansk. The game is scheduled for Monday 3 November 2025, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lechia Gdansk stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lechia Gdansk's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Polsat Plus Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Lechia Gdansk are significantly better at Polsat Plus Arena than their overall form suggests.
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Lechia Gdansk) versus 0.90 (Radomiak Radom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Radomiak Radom have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Lechia Gdansk.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with Radomiak Radom winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Radomiak Radom have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lechia Gdansk 66% and Radomiak Radom 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 60% | Radomiak Radom 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 2.41 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.047 / defence 1.106 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.149 / defence 1.408. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.193. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.408 — this is suppressing Lechia Gdansk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Lechia Gdansk games / 47 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 56% | Draw 21% | Radomiak Radom 23%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 1.79 | Draw 4.76 | Radomiak Radom 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Lechia Gdansk (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.41 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Radomiak Radom lead the H2H ledger, but Lechia Gdansk carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Lechia Gdansk are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.92 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 70% | Radomiak Radom 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena • Kick-off: Monday 3 Nov 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 56% | Draw 21% | Radomiak Radom 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 72% | xG Lechia Gdansk 2.41 / Radomiak Radom 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.047 / def 1.106 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.149 / def 1.408 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Radomiak Radom xG
72%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 3 November 2025 at Polsat Plus Arena.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom?
Lechia Gdansk 1 - 2 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 56% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 23% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom?
Record (6 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 1W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 4W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lechia Gdansk's attack rating (1.05) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 2.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
56%
1.77
21%
4.80
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
3.92
1.52
Radomiak Radom xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.55
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
9%
11.10
Win to Nil
12%
8.06
2%
48.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.52 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lechia Gdansk's recent record stands at 14W 10D 23L from 47 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 20L across 47 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lechia Gdansk on 1.11 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lechia Gdansk have managed 9W 4D 9L from 22 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 4W 5D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.51 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Radomiak Radom in 72%.
Last 47 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 14W 10D 23L in their last 47 games (1.11 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 15W 12D 20L in their last 47 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 1.41 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Radomiak Radom have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when Radomiak Radom won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lechia Gdansk's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lechia Gdansk
1
Draws
6
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 1, Radomiak Radom have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Radomiak Radom 3-1 Lechia Gdansk.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 54%, Radomiak Radom 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Lechia Gdansk) and 73% (Radomiak Radom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Lechia Gdansk's games and 68% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Lechia Gdansk's matches and 73% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Radomiak Radom defy the odds to beat Lechia Gdansk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Lechia Gdansk 1-2 at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 2.41 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.52 xG, a combined 3.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.05 / defence 1.11 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.15 / defence 1.41, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 56% | Draw 21% | Radomiak Radom 23%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Radomiak Radom win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 60%, Radomiak Radom 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.11 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.