Korona Kielce 0-2 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Korona Kielce at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Piast Gliwice travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Korona Kielce. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 October 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Korona Kielce stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Korona Kielce have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadion Miejski — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Korona Kielce are significantly better at Stadion Miejski than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Piast Gliwice have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Korona Kielce 1.20 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Korona Kielce have won 0, Piast Gliwice 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Korona Kielce in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 51% versus Piast Gliwice 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Korona Kielce 38% | Piast Gliwice 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.21 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 1.035 / defence 1.096 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.779 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.107. Data: 45 Korona Kielce games / 45 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 42% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 29%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Piast Gliwice 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Korona Kielce at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Korona Kielce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Korona Kielce 40% | Piast Gliwice 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 18 Oct 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 42% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Korona Kielce 1.21 / Piast Gliwice 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 1.035 / def 1.096 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.779 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Korona Kielce (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Piast Gliwice xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 18 October 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice?
Korona Kielce 0 - 2 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 42% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Korona Kielce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Korona Kielce and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Piast Gliwice?
Record (4 meetings): Korona Kielce 0W | Draws 3 | Piast Gliwice 1W.
What form are Korona Kielce and Piast Gliwice in?
Korona Kielce (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Korona Kielce's attack rating (1.03) and Piast Gliwice's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Korona Kielce's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Korona Kielce Win
42%
2.38
29%
3.43
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
2.15
0.95
Piast Gliwice xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
9%
11.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 11.0 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 0.95 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Korona Kielce have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 11W 17D 17L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 13W 19D 13L from 45 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Korona Kielce on 1.11 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Korona Kielce have posted 1.45 PPG from 22 outings (8W 8D 6L).
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 4W 9D 9L from 22 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Korona Kielce come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.07 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Korona Kielce and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 11W 17D 17L in their last 45 games (1.11 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 13W 19D 13L in their last 45 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Korona Kielce's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.45 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Korona Kielce or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Korona Kielce have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Korona Kielce's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Korona Kielce
6
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Piast Gliwice?
From 8 meetings on record, Korona Kielce have won 0, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Korona Kielce 1-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 54%, Piast Gliwice 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Korona Kielce and 23% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Korona Kielce play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 46% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 23% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Korona Kielce have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Piast Gliwice cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Korona Kielce.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Korona Kielce 0-2 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.21 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.95 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Korona Kielce fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Piast Gliwice outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 1.03 / defence 1.10 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.78 / defence 0.81, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 42% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 29%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Piast Gliwice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 38%, Piast Gliwice 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.11 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.