Korona Kielce 0-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Korona Kielce at 38%, yet in-form Legia Warszawa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Legia Warszawa travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Korona Kielce. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 July 2024, 19:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Korona Kielce have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Korona Kielce have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Korona Kielce have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadion Miejski — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Legia Warszawa's 2.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Korona Kielce's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Korona Kielce, 2 for Legia Warszawa and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Korona Kielce in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Legia Warszawa in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 54% versus Legia Warszawa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Korona Kielce 40% | Legia Warszawa 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.39 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 1.081 / defence 0.960 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.151 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.129. Data: 35 Korona Kielce games / 35 Legia Warszawa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 38% | Draw 31% | Legia Warszawa 31%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Legia Warszawa 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Korona Kielce as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Legia Warszawa (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Korona Kielce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Korona Kielce 50% | Legia Warszawa 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 38% | Draw 31% | Legia Warszawa 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Korona Kielce 1.39 / Legia Warszawa 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 1.081 / def 0.960 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.151 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Korona Kielce (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Legia Warszawa xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:15 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa?
Korona Kielce 0 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 38% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Korona Kielce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa?
Record (4 meetings): Korona Kielce 0W | Draws 2 | Legia Warszawa 2W.
What form are Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa in?
Korona Kielce (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Korona Kielce's attack rating (1.08) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Korona Kielce's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Korona Kielce Win
38%
2.64
31%
3.25
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
2.64
1.25
Legia Warszawa xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
8%
12.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.25 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Korona Kielce come into this having played 35 games, going 8W 14D 13L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Korona Kielce, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 1.77 PPG from 35 outings (17W 11D 7L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Legia Warszawa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Korona Kielce's home form reads 6W 8D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Korona Kielce are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 1.71 points per game from 17 outings (8W 5D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.51 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Early Season
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 8W 14D 13L in their last 35 games (1.09 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 17W 11D 7L in their last 35 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Legia Warszawa's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.53 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Korona Kielce or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Korona Kielce have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Korona Kielce's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Korona Kielce
4
Draws
4
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa?
From 9 meetings on record, Korona Kielce have won 1, Legia Warszawa have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Korona Kielce 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 59%, Legia Warszawa 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Korona Kielce) and 41% (Legia Warszawa).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Korona Kielce play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Korona Kielce's games and 53% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 41% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Korona Kielce have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Legia Warszawa defy the odds to beat Korona Kielce 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Korona Kielce 0-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.39 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.25 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Korona Kielce fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 1.08 / defence 0.96 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.15 / defence 0.90, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 38% | Draw 31% | Legia Warszawa 31%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Legia Warszawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 40%, Legia Warszawa 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.