Radomiak Radom 2-3 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Radomiaka plays host to Radomiak Radom versus Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 27 July 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Radomiaka, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jagiellonia (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jagiellonia's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Jagiellonia are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jagiellonia in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Radomiak Radom 1W, Jagiellonia 2W, 3D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Jagiellonia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 46% versus Jagiellonia 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 51% | Jagiellonia 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.35 xG and Jagiellonia 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.950 / defence 1.260 | Jagiellonia attack 1.156 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.110. Data: 35 Radomiak Radom games / 35 Jagiellonia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 30% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 42%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Jagiellonia 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 60% | Jagiellonia 90% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jul 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 30% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.35 / Jagiellonia 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.950 / def 1.260 | Jagiellonia attack 1.156 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Jagiellonia xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 27 July 2024 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Radomiak Radom 2 - 3 Jagiellonia.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 30% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia?
Record (6 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 3 | Jagiellonia 2W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (1.16x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
30%
3.35
29%
3.50
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.97
1.62
Jagiellonia xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
6%
16.85
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.62 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 35 games, going 11W 8D 16L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.89 PPG from 35 outings (19W 9D 7L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 4W 5D 8L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 1.41 points per game from 17 outings (6W 6D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jagiellonia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 2.26 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 69%.
Last 35 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Jagiellonia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 11W 8D 16L in their last 35 games (1.17 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 19W 9D 7L in their last 35 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Jagiellonia away?
Jagiellonia's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.00 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 5-0 on 2 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Radomiak Radom
4
Draws
5
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 1, Jagiellonia have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 59% for Radomiak Radom, 82% for Jagiellonia — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Radomiak Radom and 76% for Jagiellonia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Radomiak Radom's games and 82% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Radomiak Radom's matches and 76% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jagiellonia edge out Radomiak Radom 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Radomiak Radom 2-3 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.35 xG and Jagiellonia 1.62 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Jagiellonia outscored their 1.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.95 / defence 1.26 against Jagiellonia attack 1.16 / defence 1.03, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 30% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 42%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 51%, Jagiellonia 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.