Korona Kielce 0-0 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Korona Kielce at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Korona Kielce host Lechia Gdansk at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Korona Kielce — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Korona Kielce's home record at Stadion Miejski: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lechia Gdansk have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lechia Gdansk's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 4L across 7 road games this term (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.71 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Korona Kielce are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Korona Kielce, 0 for Lechia Gdansk and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 1–0 with Korona Kielce winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Korona Kielce trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Lechia Gdansk trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Korona Kielce 43% and Lechia Gdansk 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Korona Kielce 43% | Lechia Gdansk 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 2.04 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 0.925 / defence 1.141 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.180 / defence 1.480. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.200. Lechia Gdansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.480 — this is suppressing Korona Kielce's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Korona Kielce games / 14 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 48% | Draw 21% | Lechia Gdansk 31%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 2.08 | Draw 4.76 | Lechia Gdansk 3.23. Korona Kielce hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Korona Kielce at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.66 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Korona Kielce 30% | Lechia Gdansk 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 48% | Draw 21% | Lechia Gdansk 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG Korona Kielce 2.04 / Lechia Gdansk 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 0.925 / def 1.141 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.180 / def 1.480 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Korona Kielce (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Lechia Gdansk xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 11:15 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk?
Korona Kielce 0 - 0 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 48% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 31% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Korona Kielce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Korona Kielce and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Lechia Gdansk?
Record (2 meetings): Korona Kielce 2W | Draws 0 | Lechia Gdansk 0W.
What form are Korona Kielce and Lechia Gdansk in?
Korona Kielce (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Korona Kielce's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Lechia Gdansk's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. The same calculation in reverse, Lechia Gdansk's attack versus Korona Kielce's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Korona Kielce Win
48%
2.09
21%
4.70
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
3.66
1.62
Lechia Gdansk xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.31
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
13%
7.73
Win to Nil
10%
10.50
4%
25.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.62 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Korona Kielce's recent record stands at 4W 3D 7L from 14 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lechia Gdansk, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 8L across 14 games — 0.71 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Korona Kielce on 1.07 PPG, Lechia Gdansk on 0.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Korona Kielce have managed 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lechia Gdansk's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Korona Kielce are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.21 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk in 79%.
Last 14 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Blended
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Korona Kielce and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 games (1.07 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 4D 8L in their last 14 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Korona Kielce's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.00 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Korona Kielce and Lechia Gdansk runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Sep 2025, when Korona Kielce won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Korona Kielce's record when hosting Lechia Gdansk specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Korona Kielce
1
Draws
2
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Lechia Gdansk?
From 6 meetings on record, Korona Kielce have won 3, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 4-2 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Lechia Gdansk?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Korona Kielce at 33%, Lechia Gdansk at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Korona Kielce and 100% for Lechia Gdansk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 83% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Korona Kielce have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Korona Kielce play Lechia Gdansk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Korona Kielce's games and 100% of Lechia Gdansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Korona Kielce's matches and 100% of Lechia Gdansk's.
Do Korona Kielce and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Korona Kielce have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Korona Kielce's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Korona Kielce and Lechia Gdansk finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 2.04 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.62 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Korona Kielce fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Lechia Gdansk landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.93 / defence 1.14 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.18 / defence 1.48, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 48% | Draw 21% | Lechia Gdansk 31%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 43%, Lechia Gdansk 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.07 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.