Gornik Zabrze 1-0 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Raków Częstochowa travel to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla to take on Gornik Zabrze. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 August 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gornik Zabrze stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Gornik Zabrze have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gornik Zabrze's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Raków Częstochowa's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Raków Częstochowa — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Gornik Zabrze have won 1, Raków Częstochowa 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Gornik Zabrze trading profile (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 67% versus Raków Częstochowa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 64% | Raków Częstochowa 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.06 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.941 / defence 1.136 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.030 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.205. Data: 36 Gornik Zabrze games / 36 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 27% | Draw 29% | Raków Częstochowa 44%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Raków Częstochowa 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Gornik Zabrze 70% | Raków Częstochowa 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 27% | Draw 29% | Raków Częstochowa 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.06 / Raków Częstochowa 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.941 / def 1.136 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.030 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Raków Częstochowa xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa?
Gornik Zabrze 1 - 0 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 27% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (2 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 1W | Draws 1 | Raków Częstochowa 0W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gornik Zabrze's attack at 0.94x the league average against Raków Częstochowa's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
27%
3.67
29%
3.45
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.47
1.41
Raków Częstochowa xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
7%
15.06
15%
6.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.9 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.41 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gornik Zabrze come into this having played 36 games, going 14W 8D 14L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 2.08 PPG from 36 outings (22W 9D 5L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Gornik Zabrze — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Gornik Zabrze's home form reads 7W 5D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.94 points per game from 17 outings (10W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.78 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gornik Zabrze have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Early Season
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 14W 8D 14L in their last 36 games (1.39 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 22W 9D 5L in their last 36 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.53 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gornik Zabrze have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Gornik Zabrze
2
Draws
2
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 6, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 3-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 53%, Raków Częstochowa 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Gornik Zabrze) and 53% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 35%; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 47% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 53% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gornik Zabrze defy the odds to beat Raków Częstochowa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Raków Częstochowa 1-0 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.06 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.41 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Raków Częstochowa landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.94 / defence 1.14 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.03 / defence 0.88, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 27% | Draw 29% | Raków Częstochowa 44%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Gornik Zabrze win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 64%, Raków Częstochowa 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Gornik Zabrze winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.