Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 17 as Cracovia Krakow welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego. Kick-off is set for Friday 29 November 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Cracovia Krakow) versus 1.30 (Zaglebie Lubin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Cracovia Krakow, 1 for Zaglebie Lubin and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 58% versus Zaglebie Lubin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 48% | Zaglebie Lubin 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 2.37 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.310 / defence 1.342 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.842 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.222. Cracovia Krakow carry an above-average attack strength of 1.310 — their λ of 2.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Zaglebie Lubin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Cracovia Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Cracovia Krakow games / 50 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 59% | Draw 19% | Zaglebie Lubin 21%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.69 | Draw 5.26 | Zaglebie Lubin 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Cracovia Krakow (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.37 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 70% | Zaglebie Lubin 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 29 Nov 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 59% | Draw 19% | Zaglebie Lubin 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 68% | xG Cracovia Krakow 2.37 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.310 / def 1.342 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.842 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (59%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Zaglebie Lubin xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 29 November 2024 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Cracovia Krakow 1 - 1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 59% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 21% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (6 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 3W | Draws 2 | Zaglebie Lubin 1W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cracovia Krakow's attack rating (1.31) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 2.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
59%
1.68
19%
5.22
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
3.75
1.38
Zaglebie Lubin xG
1.68
59%
Home win
5.22
19%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
9%
10.67
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
2%
49.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.38 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cracovia Krakow's recent record stands at 17W 17D 16L from 50 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 21L across 50 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.36 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cracovia Krakow have managed 8W 9D 8L from 25 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record stands at 7W 5D 13L across 25 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.16 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 17W 17D 16L in their last 50 games (1.36 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 18W 11D 21L in their last 50 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.32 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cracovia Krakow
5
Draws
1
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 4, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 64%, Zaglebie Lubin 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Cracovia Krakow) and 48% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Zaglebie Lubin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 48% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 48% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 2.37 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.38 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.31 / defence 1.34 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.84 / defence 1.21, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 59% | Draw 19% | Zaglebie Lubin 21%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 48%, Zaglebie Lubin 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.36 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.