Viking 3-1 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs KFUM Oslo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lyse Arena plays host to Viking versus KFUM Oslo in Eliteserien (matchday 2). Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 19:15 UK time.
Current Form
Viking's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Viking have posted 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Viking are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
KFUM Oslo (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
KFUM Oslo's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Viking's 2.10 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of KFUM Oslo's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Viking edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended Viking 1–0 KFUM Oslo — a Viking win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
KFUM Oslo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 67% and KFUM Oslo 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 60% | KFUM Oslo 43%). Note also that KFUM Oslo surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Viking recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 57% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.71 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.174 / defence 1.029 | KFUM Oslo attack 1.012 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.166. Data: built from Viking's last 31 games and KFUM Oslo's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Viking 49% | Draw 24% | KFUM Oslo 27%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.04 | Draw 4.19 | KFUM Oslo 3.67. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Viking's last 10 home games and KFUM Oslo's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Viking 60% (last 10 home games) | KFUM Oslo 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Viking 31 games, KFUM Oslo 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 2 | Venue: Lyse Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 19:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 49% | Draw 24% | KFUM Oslo 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Viking 1.71 / KFUM Oslo 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.174 / def 1.029 | KFUM Oslo attack 1.012 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Viking (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.21
KFUM Oslo xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Viking vs KFUM Oslo FAQs
What time does Viking vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Viking vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 19:15 UK time on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Lyse Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs KFUM Oslo?
Viking 3 - 1 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Viking vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Lyse Arena.
What competition is Viking vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Viking vs KFUM Oslo is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 2) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 49% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Viking and KFUM Oslo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Viking vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Viking's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against KFUM Oslo's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — KFUM Oslo's attack (1.01x) against Viking's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from Viking's last 31 games and KFUM Oslo's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
49%
2.04
24%
4.19
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Viking xG
Total xG
2.92
1.21
KFUM Oslo xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
5%
20.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Viking vs KFUM Oslo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Viking and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Viking and 1.21 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs KFUM Oslo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Viking's recent record stands at 16W 9D 5L from 30 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
KFUM Oslo, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 11L across 30 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Viking by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over KFUM Oslo heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Viking have managed 10W 4D 1L from their last 15 home games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KFUM Oslo's away record stands at 7W 3D 5L across their last 15 away games, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Viking are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; KFUM Oslo are on 1.17 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
KFUM Oslo
Current Season
Viking (Home) vs KFUM Oslo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Viking
Current Season
KFUM Oslo
Current Season
❓ Viking vs KFUM Oslo Form FAQs
What form are Viking and KFUM Oslo in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 16W 9D 5L in their last 30 games (1.90 PPG), while KFUM Oslo have gone 9W 10D 11L in their last 30 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or KFUM Oslo away?
Viking's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 2.27 PPG; KFUM Oslo away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Viking or KFUM Oslo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, KFUM Oslo in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Viking have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won Viking 5-1 KFUM Oslo on 8 Nov 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against KFUM Oslo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Viking
1
Draws
0
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Viking vs KFUM Oslo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and KFUM Oslo?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Viking have won 5, KFUM Oslo have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Viking and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Viking 5-1 KFUM Oslo.
Who has won more matches between Viking and KFUM Oslo?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 67%, KFUM Oslo 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Viking) and 47% (KFUM Oslo).
On the defensive side: Viking keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; KFUM Oslo in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Viking vs KFUM Oslo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Viking and KFUM Oslo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Viking's games and 53% of KFUM Oslo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Viking and KFUM Oslo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Viking's recent games and 47% of KFUM Oslo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Viking and KFUM Oslo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Viking's recent matches and 73% of KFUM Oslo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over KFUM Oslo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat KFUM Oslo 3-1 at Lyse Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.71 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.21 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.17 / defence 1.03 against KFUM Oslo attack 1.01 / defence 0.92, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Viking 49% | Draw 24% | KFUM Oslo 27%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 60%, KFUM Oslo 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.