KFUM Oslo 1-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KFUM Oslo at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF make the trip to KFUM Arena to face KFUM Oslo in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Monday 21 April 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
KFUM Oslo (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at KFUM Arena, KFUM Oslo have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sarpsborg 08 FF arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — KFUM Oslo have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — KFUM Oslo lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 1–2 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
KFUM Oslo half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KFUM Oslo 57% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KFUM Oslo 43% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 1.41 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 1.066 / defence 0.980 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.122 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.186. Data: 32 KFUM Oslo games / 32 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 40% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 35%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KFUM Oslo at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sarpsborg 08 FF (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KFUM Oslo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: KFUM Oslo 60% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: KFUM Arena • Kick-off: Monday 21 Apr 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 40% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG KFUM Oslo 1.41 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: KFUM Oslo attack 1.066 / def 0.980 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.122 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: KFUM Oslo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
KFUM Oslo xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 21 April 2025 at KFUM Arena.
What was the final score in KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
KFUM Oslo 1 - 3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at KFUM Arena.
What competition is KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives KFUM Oslo a 40% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making KFUM Oslo the favourite.
Will both teams score in KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (2 meetings): KFUM Oslo 1W | Draws 0 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W.
What form are KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
KFUM Oslo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from KFUM Oslo's attack rating (1.07) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (1.12x) against KFUM Oslo's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KFUM Oslo Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.89
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
KFUM Oslo xG
Total xG
2.72
1.30
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
11%
9.29
8%
11.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for KFUM Oslo and 1.30 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KFUM Oslo's recent record stands at 9W 10D 11L from 30 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 13L across 30 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for KFUM Oslo against 1.23 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, KFUM Oslo have managed 2W 7D 6L from 15 games — 0.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 6W 4D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
KFUM Oslo are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.43 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KFUM Oslo
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
KFUM Oslo have gone 9W 10D 11L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 10W 7D 13L in their last 30 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KFUM Oslo at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KFUM Oslo at home: 0.87 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.47 PPG.
Have KFUM Oslo or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
KFUM Oslo have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KFUM Oslo have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
KFUM Oslo
0
Draws
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 5 meetings on record, KFUM Oslo have won 2, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when KFUM Oslo 1-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KFUM Oslo see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for KFUM Oslo, 73% for Sarpsborg 08 FF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (KFUM Oslo) and 73% (Sarpsborg 08 FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KFUM Oslo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; KFUM Oslo have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KFUM Oslo home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KFUM Oslo play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of KFUM Oslo's games and 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of KFUM Oslo's matches and 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
KFUM Oslo have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over KFUM Oslo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat KFUM Oslo 1-3 at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 1.41 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.30 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 1.07 / defence 0.98 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.12 / defence 0.82, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 40% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 35%, with KFUM Oslo to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sarpsborg 08 FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KFUM Oslo 43%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KFUM Oslo 1.23 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.