Stromsgodset 1-2 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 39%, yet in-form Rosenborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stromsgodset host Rosenborg at Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 March 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stromsgodset stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Stromsgodset at Marienlyst Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Rosenborg have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Rosenborg are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Stromsgodset have won 4, Rosenborg 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Rosenborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 43% versus Rosenborg 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 37% | Rosenborg 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.40 xG and Rosenborg 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.965 / defence 0.908 | Rosenborg attack 1.130 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.282. Data: 30 Stromsgodset games / 30 Rosenborg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 39% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 35%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Rosenborg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stromsgodset are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rosenborg (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 50% | Rosenborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 39% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Stromsgodset 1.40 / Rosenborg 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.965 / def 0.908 | Rosenborg attack 1.130 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Rosenborg xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Stromsgodset 1 - 2 Rosenborg.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg part of?
Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 39% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Stromsgodset and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Rosenborg?
Record (8 meetings): Stromsgodset 4W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 3W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Rosenborg in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stromsgodset's attack rating (0.96) and Rosenborg's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
39%
2.55
26%
3.89
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.72
1.31
Rosenborg xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
11%
9.50
9%
11.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.31 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stromsgodset come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 11D 26L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Rosenborg sit at 1.53 PPG from 60 outings (27W 11D 22L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stromsgodset on 1.33 PPG, Rosenborg on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Stromsgodset's home form reads 15W 5D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Rosenborg have taken 1.20 points per game from 30 outings (10W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.63 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 23W 11D 26L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 27W 11D 22L in their last 60 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Rosenborg away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.67 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Rosenborg go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2025, when Rosenborg won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Stromsgodset
1
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 4, Rosenborg have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Rosenborg 6-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 47%, Rosenborg 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Stromsgodset) and 70% (Rosenborg).
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Stromsgodset's games and 63% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Stromsgodset's recent games and 70% of Rosenborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stromsgodset and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rosenborg defy the odds to beat Stromsgodset 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Stromsgodset 1-2 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.40 xG and Rosenborg 1.31 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against Rosenborg attack 1.13 / defence 0.94, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 39% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 35%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Rosenborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 37%, Rosenborg 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.33 PPG, Rosenborg 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rosenborg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.