KFUM Oslo 1-4 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as KFUM Oslo face Fredrikstad.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fredrikstad make the trip to KFUM Arena to face KFUM Oslo in Eliteserien (matchday 7). The match kicks off on Sunday 12 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 0.69 xG and Fredrikstad 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 0.741 / defence 1.128 | Fredrikstad attack 1.001 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.363. KFUM Oslo's attack rating of 0.741 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.69. Fredrikstad bring a tight defence (rating 0.781, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling KFUM Oslo's projected output down. Data: built from KFUM Oslo's last 6 games and Fredrikstad's last 6.
Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 17% | Draw 26% | Fredrikstad 58%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 5.97 | Draw 3.90 | Fredrikstad 1.73. The model has a clear lean to Fredrikstad (58%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fredrikstad at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 7 | Venue: KFUM Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 17% | Draw 26% | Fredrikstad 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG KFUM Oslo 0.69 / Fredrikstad 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: KFUM Oslo attack 0.741 / def 1.128 | Fredrikstad attack 1.001 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
KFUM Oslo xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Fredrikstad xG
39%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad FAQs
What time does KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad kick off?
KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at KFUM Arena.
What was the final score in KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad?
KFUM Oslo 1 - 4 Fredrikstad.
Where is KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at KFUM Arena.
What competition is KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad part of?
KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 7) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives KFUM Oslo a 17% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 58% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both KFUM Oslo and Fredrikstad will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
KFUM Oslo's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Fredrikstad's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.69. Flip it around — Fredrikstad's attack (1.00x) against KFUM Oslo's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from KFUM Oslo's last 6 games and Fredrikstad's last 6 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 0-2 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
17%
5.97
26%
3.90
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.7%
Away win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
KFUM Oslo xG
Total xG
2.23
1.54
Fredrikstad xG
5.97
17%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
4%
27.84
29%
3.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 16.5 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are KFUM Oslo and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for KFUM Oslo and 1.54 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KFUM Oslo
Pre-Season
Fredrikstad
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
KFUM Oslo (Home) vs Fredrikstad (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KFUM Oslo
Pre-Season
Fredrikstad
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between KFUM Oslo and Fredrikstad, the earliest from May 2024. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fredrikstad won KFUM Oslo 1-4 Fredrikstad on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KFUM Oslo have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fredrikstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
KFUM Oslo
1
Draws
3
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Fredrikstad?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, KFUM Oslo have won 1, Fredrikstad have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did KFUM Oslo and Fredrikstad last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: Fredrikstad 3-1 KFUM Oslo.
Who has won more matches between KFUM Oslo and Fredrikstad?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KFUM Oslo home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Fredrikstad run riot with a 1-4 hammering of KFUM Oslo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat KFUM Oslo 1-4 at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 0.69 xG and Fredrikstad 1.54 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Fredrikstad outscored their 1.54 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 0.74 / defence 1.13 against Fredrikstad attack 1.00 / defence 0.78, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 17% | Draw 26% | Fredrikstad 58%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.