ODD Ballklubb 0-2 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Fredrikstad travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
ODD Ballklubb at Skagerak Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at Skagerak Arena than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.39 xG and Fredrikstad 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.276 / defence 1.289 | Fredrikstad attack 0.974 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.374. ODD Ballklubb carry an above-average attack strength of 1.276 — their λ of 1.39 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 ODD Ballklubb games / 5 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 31% | Draw 23% | Fredrikstad 46%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 3.23 | Draw 4.35 | Fredrikstad 2.17. Fredrikstad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fredrikstad at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 31% | Draw 23% | Fredrikstad 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.39 / Fredrikstad 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.276 / def 1.289 | Fredrikstad attack 0.974 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Fredrikstad xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Fredrikstad kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Fredrikstad?
ODD Ballklubb 0 - 2 Fredrikstad.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Fredrikstad part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 31% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 46% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Fredrikstad?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Fredrikstad in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. ODD Ballklubb home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (1.28) and Fredrikstad's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fredrikstad's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
31%
3.22
23%
4.26
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.11
1.72
Fredrikstad xG
3.22
31%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
18%
5.61
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
6%
18.08
11%
8.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.72 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Fredrikstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Pre-Season
Fredrikstad
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
ODD Ballklubb
0
Draws
2
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Fredrikstad?
From 2 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 0, Fredrikstad have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2024, when Fredrikstad 2-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Fredrikstad?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Fredrikstad cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over ODD Ballklubb.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat ODD Ballklubb 0-2 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.39 xG and Fredrikstad 1.72 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.28 / defence 1.29 against Fredrikstad attack 0.97 / defence 0.92, drawn from 36/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 31% | Draw 23% | Fredrikstad 46%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.