Ham-Kam 2-5 Viking – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 51%, yet in-form Viking provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ham-Kam vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Briskeby Arena plays host to Ham-Kam versus Viking in Eliteserien (matchday 3). Kick-off: Monday 21 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Ham-Kam have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Ham-Kam's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Viking's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Viking have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On a straight form reading, Viking are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Viking edge it 3 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Aug 2024, ended Ham-Kam 3–3 Viking — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Viking half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 42% versus Viking 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 48% | Viking 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ham-Kam surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Viking have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.75 xG and Viking 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.958 / defence 0.960 | Viking attack 1.024 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.186. Data: built from Ham-Kam's last 32 games and Viking's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 51% | Draw 24% | Viking 25%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 1.95 | Draw 4.25 | Viking 3.95. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Ham-Kam as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Viking (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Ham-Kam's last 10 home games and Viking's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ham-Kam 20% (last 10 home games) | Viking 80% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Ham-Kam 32 games, Viking 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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