Ham-Kam 0-0 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Aalesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ham-Kam and Aalesund meet at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Aalesund have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Aalesund haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Aalesund's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.86 xG and Aalesund 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 1.125 / defence 0.976 | Aalesund attack 0.890 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.241. Data: 4 Ham-Kam games / 5 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 56% | Draw 23% | Aalesund 22%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Aalesund 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Ham-Kam (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 56% | Draw 23% | Aalesund 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Ham-Kam 1.86 / Aalesund 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 1.125 / def 0.976 | Aalesund attack 0.890 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Aalesund xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Aalesund kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Aalesund kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
Ham-Kam 0 - 0 Aalesund.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Aalesund part of?
Ham-Kam vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 56% chance of winning, Aalesund a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ham-Kam and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Aalesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ham-Kam and Aalesund in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Aalesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ham-Kam's attack rating (1.12) and Aalesund's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.89x) against Ham-Kam's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 4/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
56%
1.80
23%
4.42
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.94
1.08
Aalesund xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
3%
29.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.6 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.08 for Aalesund, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Pre-Season
Aalesund
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Aalesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ham-Kam
4
Draws
0
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Aalesund?
From 6 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 2, Aalesund have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Ham-Kam 1-1 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Aalesund?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Ham-Kam's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam and Aalesund finished level at 0-0 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.86 xG and Aalesund 1.08 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ham-Kam fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Aalesund landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 1.12 / defence 0.98 against Aalesund attack 0.89 / defence 1.03, drawn from 4/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 56% | Draw 23% | Aalesund 22%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.