Fredrikstad 2-1 Start – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fredrikstad vs Start fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 11 as Fredrikstad welcome Start to Fredrikstad Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 29 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fredrikstad — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Fredrikstad at Fredrikstad Stadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 2.45 xG and Start 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.967 / defence 1.035 | Start attack 0.942 / defence 1.434. League average goals — home 1.763 / away 1.159. Start bring a strong defensive rating of 1.434 — this is suppressing Fredrikstad's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Fredrikstad games / 11 Start games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 66% | Draw 18% | Start 16%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 1.52 | Draw 5.56 | Start 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Fredrikstad (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.45 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fredrikstad are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Start | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 66% | Draw 18% | Start 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 62% | xG Fredrikstad 2.45 / Start 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.967 / def 1.035 | Start attack 0.942 / def 1.434 | league avg home 1.763 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.45
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Start xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Start kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Start kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 29 May 2026 at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Start?
Fredrikstad 2 - 1 Start.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Start being played?
The match is being played at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Start part of?
Fredrikstad vs Start is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Start?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 66% chance of winning, Start a 16% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Start?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fredrikstad and Start will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Start have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Start?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fredrikstad and Start in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Fredrikstad home split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fredrikstad's attack at 0.97x the league average against Start's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 2.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Start's attack versus Fredrikstad's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
66%
1.51
18%
5.58
16%
6.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.45
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
3.58
1.13
Start xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.58
18%
Draw
6.31
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
9%
11.54
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
1%
72.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Start?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Start expected to score?
The model projects 2.45 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.13 for Start, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Start?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Pre-Season
Start
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fredrikstad and Start runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Fredrikstad
0
Draws
0
Start
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Start?
From 2 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 2, Start have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Start last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Start 0-1 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Start?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Start away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Fredrikstad edge out Start 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat Start 2-1 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 2.45 xG and Start 1.13 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.97 / defence 1.03 against Start attack 0.94 / defence 1.43, drawn from 40/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 66% | Draw 18% | Start 16%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.