Fredrikstad 1-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fredrikstad at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fredrikstad Stadion plays host to Fredrikstad versus Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 5 October 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fredrikstad's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fredrikstad's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Fredrikstad Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ham-Kam have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Fredrikstad, 0 for Ham-Kam and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Fredrikstad — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 43% versus Ham-Kam 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 40% | Ham-Kam 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.40 xG and Ham-Kam 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.928 / defence 1.029 | Ham-Kam attack 0.854 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.290. Data: 53 Fredrikstad games / 53 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 43% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 30%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Ham-Kam 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fredrikstad are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Fredrikstad 60% | Ham-Kam 30%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 43% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Fredrikstad 1.40 / Ham-Kam 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.928 / def 1.029 | Ham-Kam attack 0.854 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Ham-Kam xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 October 2025 at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam?
Fredrikstad 1 - 1 Ham-Kam.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam part of?
Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 43% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam?
Record (3 meetings): Fredrikstad 2W | Draws 1 | Ham-Kam 0W.
What form are Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fredrikstad's attack rating (0.93) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.85x) against Fredrikstad's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
43%
2.32
26%
3.78
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.54
1.13
Ham-Kam xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
7%
13.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.13 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fredrikstad's recent record stands at 22W 16D 15L from 53 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ham-Kam, meanwhile, have gone 14W 15D 24L across 53 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fredrikstad by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ham-Kam heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fredrikstad have managed 13W 9D 4L from 26 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ham-Kam's away record stands at 6W 8D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.15 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 22W 16D 15L in their last 53 games (1.55 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 14W 15D 24L in their last 53 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Ham-Kam away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.85 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or Ham-Kam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Ham-Kam in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fredrikstad have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Fredrikstad
2
Draws
0
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam?
From 5 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 3, Ham-Kam have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Fredrikstad 2-1 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 46%, Ham-Kam 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Fredrikstad) and 46% (Ham-Kam).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Fredrikstad have failed to score in 27% of games; Ham-Kam in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Ham-Kam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Fredrikstad's recent matches and 42% of Ham-Kam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 46% of Ham-Kam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam finished level at 1-1 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.40 xG and Ham-Kam 1.13 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Ham-Kam attack 0.85 / defence 0.88, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 43% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 30%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 40%, Ham-Kam 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.