Waalwijk 0-3 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Waalwijk and PSV Eindhoven meet at Mandemakers Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Waalwijk's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's home record at Mandemakers Stadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
PSV Eindhoven (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PSV Eindhoven's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
PSV Eindhoven hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 7 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2024, ended 1–5 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PSV Eindhoven have won 7 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
PSV Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 59% versus PSV Eindhoven 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Waalwijk 59% | PSV Eindhoven 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.91 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.039 / defence 1.097 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.431 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.264. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.431 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Waalwijk games / 59 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 38% | Draw 21% | PSV Eindhoven 41%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.63 | Draw 4.76 | PSV Eindhoven 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.89. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.89 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 50% | PSV Eindhoven 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 38% | Draw 21% | PSV Eindhoven 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 74% | xG Waalwijk 1.91 / PSV Eindhoven 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.039 / def 1.097 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.431 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.99
PSV Eindhoven xG
74%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven?
Waalwijk 0 - 3 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 38% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 41% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Waalwijk and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and PSV Eindhoven?
Record (7 meetings): Waalwijk 0W | Draws 0 | PSV Eindhoven 7W.
What form are Waalwijk and PSV Eindhoven in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Waalwijk's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against PSV Eindhoven's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — PSV Eindhoven's attack (1.43x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.99.
These ratings are built from 58/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.7%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
38%
2.64
21%
4.68
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.89
1.99
PSV Eindhoven xG
2.64
38%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.80
Clean Sheet
14%
7.28
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
5%
19.24
6%
16.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.99 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Waalwijk come into this having played 58 games, going 11W 13D 34L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PSV Eindhoven sit at 2.47 PPG from 58 outings (45W 8D 5L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.68 PPG clear of Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Waalwijk's home form reads 7W 8D 14L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, PSV Eindhoven have taken 2.21 points per game from 29 outings (20W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Waalwijk are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 3.17 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: PSV Eindhoven in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 11W 13D 34L in their last 58 games (0.79 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 45W 8D 5L in their last 58 (2.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.00 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Waalwijk or PSV Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waalwijk have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, PSV Eindhoven in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
PSV Eindhoven have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PSV Eindhoven won 0-4 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PSV Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Waalwijk
0
Draws
8
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and PSV Eindhoven?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 0, PSV Eindhoven have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Waalwijk 0-3 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 59%, PSV Eindhoven 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Waalwijk and 76% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PSV Eindhoven in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play PSV Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Waalwijk's games and 59% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Waalwijk's matches and 76% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do Waalwijk and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Waalwijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Waalwijk 0-3 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.91 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.99 xG, a combined 3.89. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Waalwijk fell 1.9 short of their projected output. PSV Eindhoven outscored their 1.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 1.04 / defence 1.10 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.43 / defence 1.12, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 38% | Draw 21% | PSV Eindhoven 41%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 59%, PSV Eindhoven 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 0.79. That form edge translated into the three points. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.