PSV Eindhoven 5-0 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PSV Eindhoven (90%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PSV Eindhoven face Groningen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PSV Eindhoven host Groningen at Philips Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PSV Eindhoven — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 2.70 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PSV Eindhoven at Philips Stadion this season: 10W 0D 0L from 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Philips Stadion.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Groningen have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
PSV Eindhoven are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 2.10 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for PSV Eindhoven, 1 for Groningen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 6–0 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
PSV Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 59%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Groningen in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PSV Eindhoven 50% versus Groningen 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PSV Eindhoven 74% | Groningen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 3.71 xG and Groningen 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.611 / defence 0.736 | Groningen attack 0.711 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.255. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.611 — their λ of 3.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Groningen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing PSV Eindhoven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. PSV Eindhoven's defence rating of 0.736 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 PSV Eindhoven games / 12 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 90% | Draw 7% | Groningen 3%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.11 | Draw 14.29 | Groningen 33.33. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (90%) — a 87pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 4.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 90% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 81% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: PSV Eindhoven 50% | Groningen 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 90% | Draw 7% | Groningen 3% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 47% | xG PSV Eindhoven 3.71 / Groningen 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.611 / def 0.736 | Groningen attack 0.711 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (90%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
3.71
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Groningen xG
47%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Philips Stadion.
What was the final score in PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen?
PSV Eindhoven 5 - 0 Groningen.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 90% chance of winning, Groningen a 3% chance, and a 7% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Groningen?
Record (4 meetings): PSV Eindhoven 3W | Draws 0 | Groningen 1W.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Groningen in?
PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Groningen (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PSV Eindhoven's attack at 1.61x the league average against Groningen's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 3.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus PSV Eindhoven's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 4-0 (10.0%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
90%
1.11
7%
14.64
3%
32.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.71
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
4.37
0.66
Groningen xG
1.11
90%
Home win
14.64
7%
Draw
32.79
3%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
2%
40.89
Win to Nil
47%
2.14
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 2 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.8 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 3.71 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 0.66 for Groningen, a combined total of 4.37.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 90%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, PSV Eindhoven have picked up 2.70 PPG on a 40W 4D 2L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Groningen's form line: 23W 11D 12L from 46 games, 1.74 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Groningen.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PSV Eindhoven have posted 2.91 PPG from 22 outings (21W 1D 0L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 9W 5D 8L from 22 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 3.28 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.67 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: PSV Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Groningen in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Groningen in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 40W 4D 2L in their last 46 games (2.70 PPG), while Groningen have gone 23W 11D 12L in their last 46 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PSV Eindhoven at home or Groningen away?
PSV Eindhoven's home record (2.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PSV Eindhoven at home: 2.91 PPG; Groningen away: 1.45 PPG.
Have PSV Eindhoven or Groningen been keeping clean sheets recently?
PSV Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Groningen in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PSV Eindhoven and Groningen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
PSV Eindhoven go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2023, when PSV Eindhoven won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PSV Eindhoven's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
PSV Eindhoven
0
Draws
1
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Groningen?
From 8 meetings on record, PSV Eindhoven have won 7, Groningen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Groningen 1-2 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and Groningen?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 77% of the time.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PSV Eindhoven 46%, Groningen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for PSV Eindhoven and 54% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PSV Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Groningen in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PSV Eindhoven play Groningen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of PSV Eindhoven's recent matches and 54% of Groningen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of PSV Eindhoven's matches and 54% of Groningen's.
Do PSV Eindhoven and Groningen tend to score early?
PSV Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Groningen in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Groningen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Groningen 5-0 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 3.71 xG and Groningen 0.66 xG, a combined 4.37. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.61 / defence 0.74 against Groningen attack 0.71 / defence 1.38, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 90% | Draw 7% | Groningen 3%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 90%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 74%, Groningen 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Groningen's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 1.74. Form held, and they took the win. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 3.27 average — above their attacking norm. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.