NAC Breda 6-2 Excelsior – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as NAC Breda face Excelsior.

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Fixture Analysis

NAC Breda welcome Excelsior to Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eredivisie (Relegation Round). Kick-off is Tuesday 28 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, NAC Breda have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

NAC Breda at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Excelsior stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Excelsior's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — NAC Breda at 1.60 PPG versus Excelsior's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from NAC Breda's last 10 home games and Excelsior's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for NAC Breda, 0 for Excelsior and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 May 2022, ended NAC Breda 2–2 Excelsior — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

NAC Breda in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Excelsior in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 67% and Excelsior 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NAC Breda 67% | Excelsior 74%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 2.11 xG and Excelsior 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Excelsior attack 0.851 / defence 1.436. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.485. Excelsior's defence rating of 1.436 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing NAC Breda's projected output up. Data: built from NAC Breda's last 0 games and Excelsior's last 68.

Result probabilities: NAC Breda 51% | Draw 24% | Excelsior 25%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 1.95 | Draw 4.21 | Excelsior 4.00. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.11 / 1.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.56 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (NAC Breda's last 10 home games and Excelsior's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: NAC Breda 70% (last 10 home games) | Excelsior 70% (last 10 away games).

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