ADO Den Haag 2-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ADO Den Haag at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Relegation Round as ADO Den Haag welcome De Graafschap to Bingoal Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
ADO Den Haag — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. ADO Den Haag have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Bingoal Stadion, ADO Den Haag have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, De Graafschap have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (ADO Den Haag) versus 1.30 (De Graafschap). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. ADO Den Haag register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, De Graafschap in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of ADO Den Haag: 3 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for De Graafschap, with 2 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2024, ended 3–2 with ADO Den Haag winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both ADO Den Haag and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
ADO Den Haag trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
De Graafschap trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ADO Den Haag 64% and De Graafschap 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 62% | De Graafschap 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.69 xG and De Graafschap 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | De Graafschap attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.474. Data: 0 ADO Den Haag games / 0 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 42% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 32%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | De Graafschap 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ADO Den Haag at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 90% | De Graafschap 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 42% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.69 / De Graafschap 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | De Graafschap attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.44
De Graafschap xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap?
ADO Den Haag 2 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap part of?
ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 42% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap?
Record (5 meetings): ADO Den Haag 3W | Draws 2 | De Graafschap 0W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from ADO Den Haag's attack rating (0.85) and De Graafschap's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus ADO Den Haag's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
42%
2.38
26%
3.80
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.13
1.44
De Graafschap xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
6%
17.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.44 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, ADO Den Haag have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 14W 12D 13L record — D-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap's form line: 15W 7D 17L from 39 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: ADO Den Haag on 1.38 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, ADO Den Haag have posted 1.26 PPG from 19 outings (6W 6D 7L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 5W 5D 9L from 19 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.69 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 14W 12D 13L in their last 39 games (1.38 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 15W 7D 17L in their last 39 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or De Graafschap away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 1.26 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.05 PPG.
Have ADO Den Haag or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
ADO Den Haag have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: ADO Den Haag have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
ADO Den Haag's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
ADO Den Haag
3
Draws
1
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 6, De Graafschap have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when De Graafschap 1-2 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ADO Den Haag at 68%, De Graafschap at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for ADO Den Haag and 74% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of ADO Den Haag's games and 68% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 74% of De Graafschap's.
Do ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bingoal Stadion, Relegation Round, as ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.69 xG and De Graafschap 1.44 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against De Graafschap attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 42% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 32%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 62%, De Graafschap 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ADO Den Haag 1.38 PPG, De Graafschap 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.